I foresee a GDP growth of 7.2% for next year, a “relevant” figure but not enough to compensate for the 9.2% drop, “not known in our history”
The Basque employers’ association Confebask, considers that the Basque Country will regain its “pandemic level in 2022”, a departure in line with that of the euro zone countries and a year earlier than is expected for the Spanish economy wave.
The president of Confebask Eduardo Zubiaurre, however, has recalled that this provision is subject to “significant uncertainties“, so the growth bracket in the Basque Country in that year” could move between 5% and 8.5% “.
Zubiaurre has presented this morning the balance of this pandemic year and the forecasts for the next few months. The business leader has not hesitated to describe the economic situation of this year 2020, as an “unprecedented recession, from which it will take us more than a year to recover, until 2022“.
As for the next year, 2021 has assured that “it is presented with important uncertainties and economic risks”. However, he pointed out that there will be challenges and challenges that, “if we know how to face decisively, with the right tools and making the right decisions, they will allow us to get out of this crisis”. In this sense, he recalled that the Basque Country has already emerged from previous crises, “as a country with a deeply renewed productive fabric, capable of sustaining a social welfare model that, today, is among the most developed in our environment “.
Confebask estimates that Euskadi will close this year with a 9.2% drop in its economy, “a figure not known in our history.”
A situation that has not been able to overcome after the second wave prevented the consolidation of the rebound in the third quarter “.
The pandemic has had direct effects on the “business fabric and the labor market”, although Zubiaurre has stressed that “thanks to the measures adopted, these effects are less than in the previous crisis.”
In this sense, he explained that the Basque Country has 1,500 fewer companies than in February, “a figure similar to that suffered in 2009 or 2012, but now with a much greater recession than then”.
Regarding employment, Confebask foresees that the year will close with 22,000 thousand fewer affiliates to Social Security, and an unemployment rate of 11.3%. However, he highlighted the fact that “ERTEs have prevented further job destruction: it is true that this year we will close with 16% more unemployed in Lanbide. But, in the previous crisis, registered unemployment increased in Euskadi 30-35%, that is, double that on this occasion “, highlighted Zubiaurre.
Facing the next year, Confebask expects the Basque economy to grow 7.2%. “This is a relevant figure, although it is also true that still insufficient to recover all that was lost in this year“, has pointed out Zubiaurre.