The growth forecast for the French economy in 2021 will be revised in the coming days to take into account the new restrictions intended to fight the Covid-19 epidemic, Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Friday.
So far, the government has forecast 6% growth this year, after a -8.2% recession in 2020.
“As soon as you close 150,000 shops” …
“It is obvious that once you close 150,000 businesses, that you have a whole part of the tourist activity which cannot turn, that you have schools which are closed, that will of course have an impact on the activity” , the minister said on CNews.
“We are in the process of quantifying it, I will give details within a few days,” he said, adding that the new health restrictions will “necessarily have a consequence on the level of growth in 2021”.
A contained impact if the restrictions do not last beyond “early May”
Following the announcement of reinforced restriction measures in 16 departments on March 18, the government said it was convinced that its 6% growth target for 2021 remained “attainable”. In the meantime, the restrictions have spread throughout the metropolis.
The Governor of the Banque de France François Villeroy de Galhau for his part estimated Thursday that the restrictions announced this week “should not lead to a very significant revision of our forecast” of 5.5% growth for 2021 if they do not last not beyond “early May”.