Electricity: “A gentle or difficult winter in 2023-2024,” predicts Emmanuel Vargon.

Heading for a blackout this winter? Perhaps, but above all, the one who comes next will experience the most stress. The risk of targeted power outages in January or February cannot be “ruled out,” the president of the Energy Regulatory Commission, former minister Emmanuelle Vargon, assessed this Thursday evening, but the winter most at risk “probably” will be the winter of 2023. -2024.

“We have an openwork winter there now, and we will probably also have an openwork or difficult winter in 2023-2024. Here also what will be done with the import of gas, the import of electricity, the continuation of emergency community measures, the start of reflections on the organization of the market, this will affect the winter of 23-24,” she told the BFM Business Channel.

“We have a good chance that by the winter of 2022/23 things will not go so badly. For 2023-24, it is still very unclear,” she added, acknowledging that this second busy winter is “likely” to be the most risky.

RTE warning

As for this winter, she again pointed out that we cannot “rule out that there are targeted cuts. It’s not 100% sure. It will depend on our sobriety or not, the weather, our ability to react when the RTE network administrator announces that it is very stressful.”

Enedis electricity distribution network is preparing for this with the prefects just in case. We are always in when. It is not written that this will happen,” she said.

Fear of outages has been resurrected following the latest forecast from RTE, the transmission system operator, which last Friday warned of a “high” risk of strain on the power grid in January due to a slower-than-expected restart of EDF’s nuclear reactors. – almost half of which are still closed.

Responding to a question about electricity prices, Emmanuelle Vargon indicated that developments will depend on the “critical moment”, which is “the arrival of the reactors, which are currently under maintenance or repair with production restrictions in December and January.

“If they come in line with the updated EDF forecasts, that means we can manage in January if it’s not too cold, which means that prices for the first and second quarters could stabilize or even fall,” she said.