According to Pablo Nano, deputy manager of Economic Studies at Scotiabank, the magnitude of its contribution is such that without it the GDP in 2023 would be negative. “If we consider that our projection is that GDP will grow 0.5% [este año]Without Quellaveco the GDP would have fallen 0.1%”he emphasizes.
The progress of 2023 reveals that, compared to other sectors hit by climate events, mining is positioned as the main engine for the economy. Between January and July, it accumulated growth of 10%, placing itself as the first sector with the greatest contribution to growth. Internally, only metal mining has an advance of 12.11% and copper registers an increase of 19% in production.
In the medium term, the mining outlook reflects a moderation of this momentum. “The great leap in copper mining production already occurred in 2023. And for next year, production growth would be around 3%. “Mining will no longer be the main driver of growth next year”explains Nano.
Towards a new impulse
An already recurring phrase is that, beyond Quellaveco, there is no other mining project of the same magnitude in the next two or three years. Mining investment, at the end of this year, would – according to the latest BCR projections – fall by 18.1%.
The current project portfolio – which as of July totals 46 projects for US$53.13 billion – has 38 without a construction start date and only one project scheduled to begin at the end of this year: Replenishment Antamina, which seeks to expand its production stage for 8 more years.
It is precisely these projects – called ‘brownfields’ – that, according to Victor Gobitz, president of the National Society for Mining, Petroleum and Energy (SMPE), offer a new boost to the sector.
“The industry is capital intensive and many of the current operations have the possibility of expanding production or extending life. We could have an annual investment stock of more than US$5,000 million if we put agility into it. There is the case of Antamina, yes, but there is also Antapaccay, Inmaculada, Cuajone. “It is an important number of projects”
Carlos Gálvez, former president of the aforementioned union, sees with hope that companies like Southern are planning expansions of their mines. However, he does emphasize that the mining challenge – in a country context like the current one – is even greater. “We have taken forever to consider the expansion of Toromocho. We need several projects. The mining sector is very important because it must also project us into the future as a country. “Mining projects should allow us to solve national problems”he thinks.
PERUMIN and challenges
Miguel Cardozo, president of PERUMIN 36, remembers that as a country we are the fourth largest producer of non-ferrous metals in the world, which is a great responsibility.
“The global mining industry understands that we have the possibility of moving up in that ranking: we have the potential and the projects. Instead of worrying about whether the Congo will catch up with us, we could rise in the ranking of world copper production, also considering that Chile will have problems in its production. Perumin is an opportunity for this, the whole world will look at us”
The mining event begins today in Arequipa to discuss the different issues facing the sector, including mining competitiveness, sustainability and the review of projects such as the ‘brownfield’: Poderosa, Inmaculada, Antamina and others.
“The mining industry is at this moment the greatest economic boost that the country can have. With problems in agriculture, fishing and other sectors, we are doing things that can take away that opportunity for mining to continue contributing to growth. “Perumin is a kind of pause along the way to continue with the task of making the best proposals for the sector and the country”says Cardozo.
I am John Casanova. I am an author at 24 news recorder and mostly cover economy news. I have a great interest in the stock market and have been writing about it for many years. I am also interested in real estate and have written several articles on the subject. I am a very experienced investor and have a lot of knowledge to share with others.