EconomyDollar reaches a new minimum in seven months and...

Dollar reaches a new minimum in seven months and closes at S/3,855, will the trend continue?

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The price of dollar in Peru ended the day on Monday down, touching a new low in more than seven months by closing at S/3,855 per dollar, according to him Central Reserve Bank (BCR). This figure represents a drop of 0.43% compared to Friday’s close.

This is the lowest value of the US currency since it was quoted at S / 3,850 on June 9, 2021. So far this year, the greenback accumulates a decline of 3.40%. At the end of 2021, it was quoted at S/3,991.

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This trend has been going on for a few weeks. For example, last Wednesday the dollar it managed to trade below S/3.90 for the first time since the Pedro Castillo government began. According to specialists, the main reason on that occasion was a global drop in its value, as well as other external factors.

However, the continued depreciation is also explained by internal factors. For Alberto Arispe, general manager of Kallpa SAB, the appreciation of the Peruvian sol this year is also due to a recovery from the uncertainty generated in the markets with the change of government.

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In 2021, the sol depreciated much more than the rest of the currencies in the region due to the political issue in Peru, due to the distrust generated in the market by the political platform of Peru Libre and Pedro Castillo, who announced expropriations and a constituent assembly. That is why the dollar rose against the sun much more than other currencies, 11%”, he explained.

With the change in the international context, as well as the fall in political uncertainty, these are the engines that explain the fall at the beginning of the year.

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The dollar it is much weaker, but in Peru the government is no longer talking about expropriations, nor about the constituent assembly. So the market panic has stopped, the dollars that left the country since April of last year stopped leaving and exports are very strong.”, he added.

Today there is a greater perception of internal order that was not perceived so clearly last year”, explained, for his part, Luis Falen, head of macroeconomics at Inteligo.

moderate future

Despite these first results, Falen points out that by March the trend could moderate. On that date, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it would raise its first interest rates, so the market’s response would have to be analyzed.

The Fed announced that the first rate hike would take place in March. I believe that this will be the first litmus test that the exchange rateadded to the noise [político] that could generate internal sources”, he remarked.

Likewise, he warned that there are factors that could also affect the value of the dollar in the medium term. These are “municipal and regional elections [que se realizarán en octubre], the protests that we saw at the end of last year with the closure of mines and the fiscal decisions that the Ministry of Economy and Finance will take”.

On the other hand, the specialists agreed that a risk for maintaining the dollar price would be for him to make decisions that affect business confidence. “It is important that you do not make those mistakes again. The constituent assembly is one, but they must also improve appointments, they must generate a friendlier environment with investmentArispe pointed out.

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