The bad news is not surprising, but it has the advantage of being confirmed by the chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB) in person. According to Philip Lane, the effects of the coronavirus will be felt for a long time. European GDP will not return to its 2019 level before autumn 2022. Above all, the start of the recovery is not yet immediately.
Effects on consumption
“What we are watching closely is the circulation of the virus, which inevitably constrains consumer behavior, more than the containment measures themselves (…). The question is how long this will last, ”analyzes the Irish economist, in an interview with Echos. “What seems certain, however, is that the last weeks of 2020 will not see any improvement,” he adds.
For him, “as long as the vaccine is not widely distributed, we will remain in a period of uncertainty. The vaccine especially brings a perspective for the end of next year and for 2022, not for the next six months ”. Thus, “GDP will not return to the 2019 level before autumn 2022. There will be long-term effects, for example on confidence and savings, on the return to work. Despite the vaccine, there will be lasting damage. The European economy will emerge from this durably weakened crisis, ”he said. After the health crisis, the economic crisis promises to be long.