The leap forward is spectacular. In ten years, in the Nord and Pas-de-Calais, the National Rally has gone from zero to twelve deputies in the two departments. Having become the leading political party in Hauts-de-France, the RN achieved the biggest score in its history during the second round of the legislative elections.
If the Lepenist party has been a hit for several years in Pas-de-Calais, its establishment in the North is one of the lessons of the second round of legislative elections. With 6 deputies against 1 in 2017, the most populous department in France has never had so many RN representatives in the National Assembly, as political scientist Tristan Haute notes.
“It’s a historic result with victories that aren’t that narrow. There are now as many deputies in the North as in Pas-de-Calais. If certain territories were favorable to the RN during the national elections, they were less so during the local elections. But now they have changed. This is the case throughout Douaisis, in the south of Avesnois, in Flanders, in Weppes. »
The combination of three factors
Even more striking is the sociology of the territories that have shifted towards the RN. Confined so far in a disadvantaged mining area, the National Rally vote is now exported in the region to well-to-do territories (Flanders) but also urban areas as shown by the 5th constituency in the North located in the Lille metropolis.
“It is a peri-urban constituency that has voted for the right for 20 years. But the LR candidate having been eliminated in the first round, the voters preferred the RN to the Nupes. There is an increase in territorial divisions, including in metropolitan France. But we also forgot that the RN vote could also be a middle class and wealthy class vote, ”continues the political science lecturer.
“A catch-all vote”
So how to explain this switch to RN in these territories? For Tristan Haute, it’s the combination of three mechanisms. “There was an anti-Macron front, an anti-Nupes front with the figure of Jean-Luc Mélenchon but also the end of the republican front. The presidential majority did not call for a clear vote for the Nupes candidates and that ends up blurring the tracks. Suddenly, the RN ended up exploding its glass ceiling because it became a catch-all vote, ”explains Tristan Haute.
Until a few years ago, the progression of the RN vote could be considered an electoral accident. From now on, he has definitively established himself in the political landscape of a region in which he has never seemed to be so powerful.