Why overseas is a must for candidates

Jean-Luc Mélenchon in Guadeloupe on Wednesday, Marine Le Pen in Mayotte on Saturday, Fabien Roussel in Reunion Island on Thursday… The crossover overseas of presidential candidates has started. “They arrive earlier than in previous campaigns”, notes Christiane Rafidinarivo, political scientist specializing in overseas territories and researcher at CEVIPOF of Sciences Po. Advanced travel, but also required for contenders for the Elysee Palace, in regions that have made the headlines in recent weeks.

After violent protests in Martinique and Guadeloupe, where opposition to the health pass has turned into a deep social and anti-government crisis, the place is rather clear for some. “This year, the bonus will be for the anti-system parties who will make their electorate on the ruins left by the party in power”, estimates Alexandre Eyries, professor and researcher in information and communication sciences at the University of Burgundy and author of the book Anthropolitweet (Ed. The same). Candidates will easily be able to surf the management of the coronavirus epidemic, deemed bad overseas.

Overseas territories centralize certain key themes of extreme parties

But the health crisis will not be the only subject that the opposition will be able to appropriate. It has indeed brought back to the fore an even deeper social crisis. Affected industrial regions, exploding youth unemployment, the cost of living much higher than in metropolitan France … “All of this fosters resentment towards the government and promotes the rise of populist parties”, assures Alexandre Eyries. “Social inequalities are indeed one of the major campaign themes of both far-left and far-right parties, even if they do not treat them in the same way,” adds Christiane Rafidinarivo.

Another big subject, that of national sovereignty, on which several candidates have positioned themselves by taking advantage of the referendum for the independence of New Caledonia last weekend. This election was an opportunity for Jean-Luc Mélenchon to challenge the legitimacy of the vote, like the separatists, or on the contrary, for Valérie Pécresse, to assert his “visceral attachment to New Caledonia” and to recall that “Overseas is France”.

A pool of voters who could make the difference

A game of seduction that could bear fruit in areas where “voters feel folklore and left behind”, underlines Alexandre Eyries. “The candidates who come there play the card of universalism. It’s a way of saying that they don’t deal at a distance and that every inch of France, every voter counts. “

A campaign communication that is ultimately not so far from reality. According to the polls, the first round could prove to be particularly tight between some candidates, and every vote will be good to take. “There are potentially 1.5 million voters in the Overseas Territories. This is the same number as the French abroad, Count Alexandre Eyries. They will not necessarily change the election, but it is a significant breeding ground. “Especially since according to Christiane Rafidinarivo, these territories have more and more” volatile voters, who do not always vote for the same political family “.

Capitalize and be sponsored

But even before talking about the election, we must not forget that at the start of the campaign, some candidates do not yet have their 500 sponsorships. “These trips are for them the opportunity to obtain them, and perhaps also to convince not to give these signatures to others”, analyzes Christiane Rafidinarivo.

These visits will certainly not have the same content according to the political figures. Some are already in almost conquered land. As a reminder, in 2017, Jean-Luc Mélenchon came out on top in Reunion Island and Marine Le Pen was the candidate with the most votes in all of the overseas territories.

For aspirants to the Elysee Palace, it is also a question of “capitalizing on territories where they have already proved their worth”, decrypts Christiane Rafidinarivo. Thus “for Valérie Pécresse, heiress of Jacques Chirac, who had a strong sympathy in the West Indies, the challenge will be to reconquer these lands after the earthquake of 2017, which weakened her political family”, concludes the expert. For the presidential candidates, there will therefore be different paths to achieve the same objective: to seduce the overseas territories.