World Cup: Oxford University Predicts Brazil Wins

All this, of course, is only a prediction. The numbers and letters are on the board. But it still gives an idea of ​​the trends of this 2022 World Cup, which will have a big start this Sunday in Doha. Oxford University has released the results of its World Cup predictions based on a mathematical model developed by one of its researchers. Results ? Brazil will win on 18 December.

Based on data from each of the qualified teams since 2018, the model “simulated the group stages a million times and saved the most common results,” the university explains on its Twitter account. The algorithm then simulated each knockout match 100,000 times. »

In this model, the Netherlands, England, Argentina, France, Spain, Belgium, Brazil and Portugal finish first in their groups, which is a priori expected. So France will inherit Mexico in the Round of 16, then beat England in the quarter-finals, then lose to… Belgium in the 2018 semi-final rematch. , Portugal in the quarter-finals, France in the semi-finals and finally Brazil in the final.

Thus, the final, from which the “Red Devils” will emerge as losers. Brazil, for its part, will exclude Uruguay, Spain and Argentina. In the final against Belgium, the model predicts the victory of the Brazilians with a coefficient of 61.3%.

A model that, of course, should be taken with a grain of salt. “Although this more likely, it’s still statistically very unlikely – just more likely than the other alternative scenarios! “, clarified Joshua Bell, its creator. However, according to his model, Brazil (14.7%) and Argentina (14.4%) are the two countries most likely to win the competition, well ahead of the Netherlands (7.8 %), Spain (7%) and France (6.4%).