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Qatar 2022: What is the “third party effect” suffered by France, Portugal and Brazil

But the aforementioned “bumps” were not the only ones. Some occurred on this third date, but with a particular trend: the defeats had already gotten their ticket to the round of 16 after the second day. Tunisia, for example, defeated France; South Korea did the same with Portugal Y Cameroon followed in their footsteps against Brazil in a historic win. Japan, who had already defeated a world champion (Germany), defeated Spain to finish first in their group.

They were incredible, historic results, full of emotion. However, were they foreseeable or were they the surprise that nobody expected? In the “most open World Cup in history”, according to the statistician Mr. Chip, who gave an incredible figure:

Incredibly the World Cup 2022 does not have to Germany (four times world champion), Belgium (second in the FIFA ranking; that is, one of the best selected), Denmark (semifinalist of the last Euro) and Uruguay (two-time world champion) in the round of 16. and yes to Korea of South (had not arrived since 2010), Australia (since 2006) and Poland (since 1986).

What happened and how do you explain the incredible defeats of France, Portugal and Brazil? And why is the case of Spain not counted? What is the third party “effect” about? We explain it to you below.

“The Third Party Effect”

Two Peruvian economists (Ienzo Duarte and Guillermo Byrne) created a Statistical model to predict the chances that a team has of beating another in the World Cups. With an 80% accuracy rate, and after watching 488 World Cup matches from Italy 90 to Russia 2018, they introduced a variable called the “third game effect”.

he had told us a few weeks ago.

Since nothing is at stake for being in the round of 16, the coaches decide to rotate the team to give their starters rest. Did France in view of Tunisiafor example, when he left in the bank to kylian mbappe; but he also experimented with lining up camavinga as left back and Disasi as a right back. The result: 1-0 in favor of the Tunisians.

Mbappé on the bench watching the defeat against Tunisia.  (Photo: FIFA)

The same happened with Portugal. Fernando Santos left the central defender on the bench Ruben Dias and the attackers Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva and Joao Felix. The end result was 2-1 in favor of South Korea who sealed their qualification to the round of 16 with a great goal after 91 minutes.

Brazil followed the trend. Tite sent an “alternative” team even though it had eleven cracks, but that’s how Scratch is. Even Dani Alves, at 39 years and 210 days, broke the record for the oldest Brazilian to play a World Cup match. But the final score was not good and they fell 1-0 to Cameroon in a historic result: they had never lost to the Africans.

Ienzo Duarte tells us.

The thing about Spain and the Japanese miracle (2-1 victory) is not considered because, according to the economist, “it was not fully classified”.

From Italy 1990 to Russia 2018, eleven atypical results were recorded on the third date when one of the teams was classified or eliminated. The Norway (2-1) Brazil was in France 1998 is one of the most remembered.

third party effectranked selectionThird match resultRank you ranked for
Italy 1990Cameroon
1-0 vs. Argentina
2-1 vs. Romania
USSR 4-1 CameroonFirst
Italy 1990Germany
4-1 Yugoslavia
5-1 E. United Arab
Germany 1-1 ColombiaFirst
United States 1994Argentina
4-0 vs. Greece
2-1 vs. Nigeria
Argentina 0-2 Bulgariabest third
United States 1994Belgium
1-0 vs. Morocco
1-0 vs. Holland
Belgium 0-1 Saudi Arabiabest third
France 1998Brazil
2-1 vs. Scotland
3-0 vs- Morocco
Brazil 1-2 NorwayFirst
France 1998Nigeria
3-2 vs. Spain
1-0 vs. Bulgaria
Nigeria 1-3 ParaguayFirst
France 1998Romania
1-0 vs. Colombia
2-1 vs. England
Romania 1-1 TunisiaFirst
Germany 2006Spain
4-0 vs. Ukraine
3-1 vs. Tunisia
Spain 1-0 Saudi ArabiaFirst
South Africa 2010Brazil
2-1 vs. Korea (N)
3-1 vs. Ivory Coast
Brazil 0-0 PortugalFirst
Brazil 2014England (eliminated)
1-2 vs. Italy
1-2 vs. Uruguay
C. Rica 0-0 EnglandLast (did not qualify)
Brazil 2014France
3-0 vs. Holland
5-2 vs. Swiss
France 0-0 EcuadorFirst
Credits: Ienzo Duarte – Guillermo Byrne

The group stage of a World Cup that is leaving us big surprises is over. There seem to be no favorites and if there are, there is always a hope that a miracle might happen. Although the falls in France, Portugal and Brazil were already planned.


Source: Elcomercio

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