Alianza Lima and the statistical model that gives him as champion of the Opening Tournament

With nine games, Alianza today looks at everyone from the top and with incredible numbers. They won the classic at the Monumental, in Cajamarca against UTC and in Piura against Atlético Grau. The balance at the moment is 21 points in nine games, two units more than the ‘U’his closest pursuer, but with one game less, after beating Atlético Grau 2-1. That is, it can be five.

The numbers of Guillermo Salas’s team are exciting and they have arguments to do so. There is even a statistical model that every alliance member checks on Twitter after each intimate victory. This is a data analysis created by Edwar Apaza (@edwarapaza)a 35-year-old industrial engineer born in Cusco who transferred his love for the blue and white to mathematics. “A couple of years ago I was discussing it internally with friends. We were talking about the ‘ratio’ in reference to the points per game (on average) that are needed to win a short tournament in League 1″tells us.

What is it about? Apaza decided to analyze the last 15 short tournaments that were played in Peruvian soccer (Apertura and Clausura). The “ratio” would be the division of “total points obtained” between “games played”. Alianza, for example, achieved 42 points in 18 dates to be the Clausura 2022 champion. Its “ratio” or average was 2.33, according to the model. , he tweeted in a great thread explaining his statistical model.

With this Sunday’s victory, Alianza, according to Apaza himself, is “at the pace of a champion”, since it happened to be at 2.33. “Crystal is exactly 2.0 and the ‘U’ is 1.90. What plays against the creams in terms of the ratio is having more games played (10), that somewhat hides the fact that they have already lost three games and drawn another“, tells us.

The blue and whites will clash next Saturday in Matute against the crestfallen Cantolao who has only added three points in the eight games he has played. A new victory would increase their chances of winning the first tournament of the year, all in search of the three-time championship.

The road that Alianza has yet to travel

It is not the most accessible fixture, but for Alianza Lima the worst is over. The Victorian team has nine games ahead of them, of which they will only have three visits: Unión Comercio in Tarapoto, Melgar in Arequipa and ADT in Tarma. Then he has six games in Matute, his fort, where not only have they not lost but they have not conceded goals.

Of course, in the middle of the dates for the Opening, the intimate will play the Libertadores Cup, which will cause the coach Chicho Salas to rotate some players and not play with their usual starters. The same will happen between the first and second week of May: on the 3rd they will collide with Atlético Mineiro in Brazil, on the 6th against Mannucci in Lima and on the 9th against Melgar in Arequipa. Three meetings in seven days.

The advantage that the intimate team has is that for this 2023 they have formed a broad squad to face both tournaments. Although the injured are not counted in this analysis, as is happening now that they were left without right-backs due to the loss of Gino Peruzzi, Edison Chavez and Joao Montoya. They are added Vilchez and his own christian cave.

academicFor its part, it has a slightly more complex fixture than its classic rival. The creams have two complicated visits in the final stretch of the tournament: Cajamarca and Huancayo, two complicated places due to the height. In addition, on Monday the 24th of this month, four days after colliding with Goiás for the South American, they will collide with Sporting Cristal in a duel that could define the path of both in the tournament. Knowing how to handle fatigue will also be essential for Jorge Fossati’s team.

Cusco FC It is the surprise of the moment in the Apertura and it is also the only team at the top of the table that does not play an international tournament, which could be an advantage. Although the Inca cast does not have any pending matches and has already rested, in addition to facing Universitario and Cristal, two direct rivals, in Lima. Complicated panorama but that does not affect the illusion of the recently promoted.

Finally, Glass he rested this day and saw how his rivals passed him on the table. Even so, the celestial ones will seek to recover to fight until the end. Like the ‘U’, those led by Thiago Nunes must also visit Cajamarca and Huancayo, in addition to going to the heat of Sullana to collide with Alianza Atlético. At the international level, the light-blues will be affected by the accumulation of games and in some matches they will have to use their substitutes, as happened a few weeks ago in Cusco when they drew 4-4 with Deportivo Garcilaso.