What lies behind Mexico’s ambiguity about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

In the midst of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Chamber of Deputies mexican The Mexico-Russia Friendship Group was inaugurated on Wednesday.

The initiative was promoted by the leftist Labor Party (PT), which is part of the government bloc of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Its members, among whom there are also deputies from the ruling Morena party, assure that it is a gesture in favor of the diplomatic resolution of conflicts.

For others, however, it is a wrong decision that also comes at a bad time.

Opposition deputies demonstrated to condemn the creation of this group, which they consider an offense to the suffering of the Ukrainian people.

Also controversial was the participation in the event of the Russian ambassador to Mexico, Viktor Koronelli, who praised the foreign policy of the Mexican government regarding the ongoing war.

“We highly value the position, the position of the Mexican government in the face of the Ukrainian crisis,” said Putin’s envoy on Wednesday, who celebrated that the López Obrador government has distanced itself from its Western partners.

A half sentence

When Russia began invading Ukraine on February 24, Mexico, currently a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, hesitated to take a clear stance on the invasion.

In his speech after the conflict began, López Obrador condemned “any invasion, by any power, in this case Russia”.

Unlike most of its western partners, has refused to impose sanctions the government of Vladimir Putin and Russian companies, as well as sending weapons to Ukraine.

The president argued that his government adheres to the Mexican Constitution, which advocates non-intervention, the self-determination of peoples and the peaceful solution of conflicts.

One country, two positions?

A half sentence

When Russia began invading Ukraine on February 24, Mexico, currently a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, hesitated to take a clear stance on the invasion.

In his speech after the conflict began, López Obrador condemned “any invasion, by any power, in this case Russia”.

Unlike most of its western partners, has refused to impose sanctions the government of Vladimir Putin and Russian companies, as well as sending weapons to Ukraine.

The president argued that his government adheres to the Mexican Constitution, which advocates non-intervention, the self-determination of peoples and the peaceful solution of conflicts.

One country, two positions?

“You have to differentiate between the statements of the president and some actors in his party, and the official positions that Mexico presents in international organizations,” Khemvirg Puente, a political scientist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), explains to BBC Mundo.

The creation of the parliamentary friendship group with Russia took place on the same day that the Mexican ambassador to the United Nations, Juan Ramón de la Fuente, presented a new resolution with France to demand that Moscow stop its attacks.

The resolution, approved with 140 votes in favor, 38 abstentions and 5 against, was applauded by Ukraine and reviled by Russiawho considered it to serve the interests of the US and the West.

For academic Sergio Aguayo, a researcher in international studies at the Colegio de México, what happened almost simultaneously on Wednesday in the Mexican Parliament and at the UN headquarters in New York reveals contradictions.

“They are two expressions of a state that lacks coherence, since there is no guiding line on the subject of the invasion of Ukraine that guides Mexico’s foreign policy, but these lurches,” he asserts.

Aguayo also believes that the misalignment between Mexico and the West on issues such as sanctions or the shipment of weapons in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine “is more a position of the president and a small group of radical sectors, than of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.” .

The Foreign Ministry, he believes, “is in favor of a more active policy to support Ukraine, but it has the limits set by the president.”

Why does López Obrador assume this position in the conflict?

“We have this ambivalence of the president who does not want a confrontation with Russia because in his speech he always seeks to try to look good with all the countries, mainly with the powerful ones,” says Khemvirg Puente.

López Obrador has maintained fluid relations with the leaders of the main powers in recent years, from Donald Trump to Joe Biden to Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The UNAM political scientist believes that “the last thing the Mexican president wants” is a conflict with Russia or China, and “that is why in his speech he avoids directly condemning Russia’s actions.”

In any case, he points out, the Russian government “appreciates the president’s speech, but they are not naive and they know the position that Mexico has in the UN Security Council.”

Trade and investments

At the economic level, the expert also sees possible reasons for the Mexican ambiguity in the conflict.

“Any disagreement with a power like Russia that could have repercussions on investment in Mexico would affect the country, so he also wants to avoid any type of sanctions on these countries.”

Although Russia occupies a marginal place in Mexico’s trade compared to the US and other countries in the region, the Latin American country imports a large quantity of fertilizers from its Slavic counterpart, essential for its agricultural sector.

In 2021, Mexico exported products worth US$499 million to the Russian market, mostly cars and parts, while its imports from the Slavic country totaled US$2,251 million, according to official data.

Russian investment in Mexico is estimated at US$132.6 million, with important companies present in the Latin American country such as the gas giant Gazprom and the oil company Lukoilwhich has an exploration and extraction contract with the state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex).

Mexico, historical neutrality?

To justify his decision to distance himself from Western allies by not imposing sanctions on Russia or supplying weapons to Ukraine, the Mexican president He also alluded to historical reasons.

According to López Obrador, the history of Mexico is closely linked to non-intervention in foreign conflicts and not taking part in “decisions” of other countries “in any field.”

Aguayo believes that this argument is not valid: “our history is full of cases in which Mexico does take a stand.”

“In the late 1970s, Mexico actively supported the Sandinista revolution in Nicaragua, and in the Spanish Civil War he sent weapons to the Republican side and then refused to have relations with the Franco government. And those are just two of more examples.”

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