Mexico Elections 2022: Why is an overwhelming victory expected from Morena, AMLO’s party?

The ruling party in MexicoMorena, is shaping up to win at least four of the six governorships that will be contested at the polls on Sunday, thanks in large part to President Andrés Manuel López Obrador – its folksy and charismatic leader – and the absence of a credible opposition, according to the analysts.

Ironically, at his moment of greatest political strength, Brunette perhaps it is also about to enter its most vulnerable phase: the young party needs to take control of Tamaulipasa troubled border state dominated by cartels, and after waging a divisive internal contest over who will succeed Lopez Obrador in the presidency in 2024.

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Due to the seemingly unchallengeable dominance of Brunette —because the opposition will only have the governorships of half a dozen of the 32 states of Mexico— there has been a stampede of politicians of all stripes seeking to join or ally themselves for their political survival, a rush that threatens to erode the already weak cohesion and ideology of that force in power.

Analysts claim that Morena could be transforming into an omnipresent “government party”similar to the old Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which dominated Mexican politics for 70 years from 1929 to 2000, but without the reputation of the iron internal discipline that once characterized it.

Basically, Morena is a very broad force made up of anyone whose entry has allowed López Obradora pragmatic politician who has at times cut off opposition politicians by granting them embassies.

This marks a new stage in Mexican politics.

“The fight will not be against the opposition, it will be within Morena”, said Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, an adjunct professor at George Mason University. “The movement will be blurred by the incorporation of elements that do not go with the project. It is fading as a left-wing party”.

These contradictions are on display in Tamaulipasborder state with Texas, where most of the former governors of the last 20 years have gone to prison accused of corruption or for associating with drug cartels that dominate the state.

The President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. (EFE/ Isaac Esquivel).

The candidate for governor for Morena in Tamaulipas is a friendly cardiologist, Américo Villarreal, former member of the PRI and son of a beloved deceased PRI governor who was also a friend of López Obrador.

The candidate Villarreal has not made the big proposals to confront drug trafficking organizations like the Northeast Cartelwho acts brazenly and attacked the US consulate in the border city of Nuevo Laredo this year.

Though Lopez Obrador it has disappointed the US government by avoiding confrontation with drug cartels and not even attempting to arrest drug kingpins, it has maintained close cooperation with the United States by detaining migrants seeking to reach the border.

Correa-Cabrera foresees that Villarreal will continue this trend, in a situation that she said could be seen as a “narco-peace” policy. However, the professor pointed out that drug-trafficking violence tends to increase after local elections, due in part to the fact that agreements with prominent politicians end and new conditions have to be negotiated.

“The criminal groups are going to get out of control”, Correa-Cabrera declared. “The violence is going to start to intensify; at the beginning, there will be a difficult period; how difficult I don’t know.”

Ivonne Acuña Murillo, a professor of political science at the Universidad Iberoamericana in Mexico City, says that López Obrador’s policies, such as doubling the minimum wage in areas such as Tamaulipas and constantly visiting towns and cities in the interior, are key to understanding the possible overwhelming victory of Morena in the gubernatorial race.

“It is his continuous work of being there, of not neglecting any square, of always visiting places, on weekends to have that approach with people, which is what nourishes him and nourishes his power”Acuna Murillo said,

“Indeed, it is a movement armed by him, which follows him, which is what we know as López Obrador and which, however, does not coincide with what Morena is, with its bases and its structure. And then it’s going to be quite a challenge.” he added. “It seems to me that it is a party that, without the great leader, could be a bit fragile based on these elections.”

Morena was founded by López Obrador in 2012, and when he leaves, the party is likely to become a politically divisive arena for all against all. The law prohibits the re-election of the president.

Several personalities from the government of Lopez Obrador have started a fierce dispute to obtain the presidential candidacy of Brunette Heading to the 2024 elections.

Morena also seems to be heading for victory in the elections in Quintana Roo, where tourist centers such as Cancun, Tulum and Playa del Carmen are located.

Although tourism, the main source of income for the state, has recovered from the coronavirus pandemic, it faces enormous challenges in the face of drug violence and the arrival of the stinking sargassum on its beaches.

Lopez Obrador has invested heavily in Quintana Roo to build its Mayan Train tourism project, which will link colonial cities, beach resorts and Mayan archaeological sites, although it has drawn several criticisms from environmentalists due to the clearing of swathes of jungle by workers, not to mention the environmental repercussions.

“I think that it is certain (the victory) for Morena; I hope that we will have more federal support and that will help put tourism on the national agenda and resolve the issues that concern us for the state”, said Sergio León, former president of the Employers’ Confederation of the Mexican Republic (Coparmex), a business organization.

Rafael Barajas, civil activist in Tulumsaid “Obviously Morena is going to win because that political group of (the mayor of Tulum) Marciano Dzul agreed with the federal government to let them do what they want while the Mayan Train project is carried out without interference or protests.”

Although opposition parties still exist, they have been forced into an uneasy alliance against Lopez Obrador.

In two states where Brunette goes down in the pollsAguascalientes Y Durango—, the candidates go together with the PRI and the National Action Party, with a conservative tendency.

Brunette possibly won the states of oaxaca and Gentleman, which current PRI governors remain strangely close to López Obrador. Again, the challenges for Morena come more from within than from without.

“In certain states, such as Hidalgo, the PRI governor is more on the side of Morena,” Acuna Murillo said. “It seems to me that the political culture of presidentialism is still alive; I think it is the PRI logic, that is, they are on the side of the one who is going to win and they are on the side of the strong president”.

“Yes Brunette it falls, it will be due to an internal logic, because there is no opposition to face it”.

Source: Elcomercio