Emmanuel Macron April ended with a smile from ear to ear: the French they once again trusted him for a second term as president, breaking a 20-year streak of presidents who failed to win re-election. The gesture was understood as the renewal of trust.
But it looks like it was a misread. Last weekend, France elected its parliamentarians, whose positions are essential for Macron to govern calmly. The results were adverse: the president does not have a significant majority in the National Assembly.
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For Deutsche Welle, that the “center alliance led by the president lost the majority in France” it’s a “hard backhand”, and puts your “reformist and liberal program”.
“Your Alliance Together! won 245 of the 577 seats in the Assembly (lower house); the left front, 137; and the far-right National Grouping (RN) of Marine Le Pen, 89, multiplying by eleven the deputies achieved in 2017″, adds the middle.
And there seems to be no possibility of agreements. DW notes that the first option was the “conservative party of the Republicans (LR), but its president, Christian Jacobreiterated this Tuesday the 21st that they have ‘a very clear line: we are in opposition’”.
Could it be that Macron won, but will not be able to govern?
“Obviously it is going to be more difficult, although it must be taken into account that France has a presidential system, so it has a certain scope to act”, he maintains Enrique Banús, director of the Institute of European Studies of the University of Piura.
According to the specialist, Macron’s victory in the presidential elections could be explained by the number of options. He remembers that, in the second round, the decision was between him and Marine LePen and that when this happens, “there are people who vote by conviction, and others so that the other does not come out”. “That is, they vote for the lesser evil by holding their nose”.
“On the contrary, the election of parliamentarians offers more alternatives”.
What has happened, explains Banús, reflects that there is not so much trust in Macron due to his unfulfilled promises. “One understands that offering a lot is part of the usual electoral dynamics, and that if he did not comply, it is because life is more complex. But his supposed incapacity has also been put into the balance and that he would not be the leader that was thought”.
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Problems in the future
The first management Emmanuel Macron was marked by closing with the other political forces. Ruling alone eventually took its toll on him, and he was now left with reduced room for maneuver.
In addition, he will have to face another danger: the elections of the National Assembly They showed the rise of the extreme right. According to the AFP agency, the party of Marine LePen“one of the main winners of the elections“, could “manage to form its own parliamentary group for the first time since 1986, thus gaining weight”.
And Le Pen is willing to use her power to trip up the president. “We will make Emmanuel Macron a minority president”, held.
“This could cause problems for France because it is a weakened leader with many difficulties in making decisions. And at the level of Europewhere Macron exercised some leadership, the same will happen”.
“Fortunately, it is not that the other European leaders are very convincing. For example, the chancellor German, Olaf Scholzis very hesitant and should not be competition, although we will see what happens”.
It is clear that the only way for the French president is to dialogue and establish agreements, despite the fact that the situation does not seem auspicious.
Banus notes: “Everything points to the fact that it will not find partners that will give it a stable majority. That remains? Govern with changing majorities; that is, seek allies for specific projects and thus be able to carry out programs and laws”.
“It is true that this will take time and effort, but in reality it is an important democratic exercise. He will have to negotiate according to the options presented to him”.
The possibility that the Parliament the push to resign could also be ruled out, for the time being. Banus concludes: “There are no clear majorities and, even when an opposition majority is formed, it is not that there are options to generate an alternative government. I think they will be more pragmatic when reaching an agreement, trusting that the situation will not get worse”.