The ghost of ungovernability lurks in an Ecuador without political leadership

Beset by a powerful indigenous movement and massive protests, three presidents were ousted in Ecuador between 1997 and 2005. A new social outbreak puts the rightist on the ropes William Lasso and awakens the ghosts of ungovernability from other times.

The socialist Rafael Correa (2007-2017) “is the exception in 40 years (…) of the last democratic wave” that in 1979 broke almost a decade of military dictatorships, explains to AFP the political scientist Santiago Basabe, from the Faculty Latin American Social Sciences (Flacso).

Look: National strike in Ecuador: indigenous people agree to meet with the government after 15 days of protests

His arrival put a stop to a nine-year period of instability, in which seven leaders assumed power amid destabilization and chaos.

But the new indigenous protests, which began on June 13 and are the longest in the country’s recent history, have the government in check again.

The high cost of living fueled by the increase in fuel prices pushed some 14,000 protesters into the streets, most of them in Quito. They demand relief to cushion the economic blow to agricultural production and the basic food basket.

Festive marches, roadblocks, violent clashes between the public force and the indigenous put pressure on the unpopular Lasso (17% acceptance), who gives in little by little to their claims.

“Each fall has had specificities”, but the threats about state subsidies have fueled all the riots, in a dollarized economy since 2000, Basabe maintains.

weak governments without Congressional support, a robust indigenous movement, erratic politics, and poverty are the explosive cocktail that threatens democracy in Ecuadoraccording to experts.

Charisma

Correa remained in power with a majority of popular support, although in recent years he has applied a policy of “divide and rule” against social organizations, says analyst Karen Garzón Sherdeck, from SEK University.

“Everyone was afraid to protest (…) although it is true that (Correa) did not sympathize with the indigenous movement either,” he adds.

In the Correa government, the extensive social investment and the strengthening of institutions gave a respite.

“He also had certain personal attributes like his charisma and his ability to work,” says Basabe.

His successor Lenín Moreno (2017-2021), who emerged from Correismo but took a turn to the right, also faced protests but remained in power thanks to the support of the Armed Forces.

The military have just given Lasso a boost amid threatening discontent.

Indigenous, the counterweight

At the forefront of the protests and the overthrow of three presidents is the powerful Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (Conaie).

Except for a short honeymoon with Correa, the organization has always been in opposition, representing nearly a million people who make up the original peoples.

A Conaie protest in 2019 against the elimination of millionaire fuel subsidies ordered by Moreno lasted more than a week, with 11 dead and more than 1,000 injured.

The pressure from the natives forced him to back down on his decision, which was tied to commitments with the IMF.

Moreno and Lasso pointed to “those recipes that they know are failed, that the country will have a hard time accepting,” explains Garzón Sherdeck.

The pandemic plunged Ecuador in one of the worst health crises in Latin America.

And although the confinement contained discontent, it further deepened the poverty that punishes almost 28% of the 17.7 million Ecuadorians, especially in rural areas where indigenous people live.

The elites govern for a minority class, points out historian Pablo Ospina, from the Universidad Andina Simón Bolívar.

“They believe that what is good for them is good for the country. That is economic liberation, the elimination of subsidies, trade liberalization”, he affirms.

legislative support

If Correa enjoyed majorities in Congress, the following governments struggled to reach consensus in the Legislative to carry out reforms and bills.

Presidents have always “governed with Assemblies against and that will not change as long as the party system in the country is not modified,” says Basabe.

Without higher requirements to constitute a political organization, Ecuador has more than 200 matches.

So “the tendency for there to be more fragmentation and for the president to be weaker is even greater,” says the Flacso political scientist.

In the midst of the indigenous rebellion, Parliament has been debating since Saturday the possibility of dismissing Lasso, whom a sector of the opposition considers responsible for the “serious political crisis and internal commotion” in the country.

“It was necessary to put the house in order in the economic sphere. But at the cost of removing social investment?” asks Garzón Sherdeck.

Source: Elcomercio

Ronald Payne

I, Ronald Payne, am a journalist and author who dedicated his life to telling the stories that need to be said. I have over 7 years of experience as a reporter and editor, covering everything from politics to business to crime.