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“It is my main motivation to vote.” Paxton Smith, an 18-year-old Texan, is talking about abortion.
This November 8, she will go to the polls for the first time to elect governor for her state and vote for who represents her in the US Congress, in mid-term elections that are crucial for the direction of the country.
LOOK: Biden signs an executive order that seeks to protect access to abortion in the United States
And after that in June the Supreme Court annulled the constitutional protection by abortionHe is very clear about who he is going to favor.
“I am going to vote for politicians who are in favor of the right to choose, because I know that they will be willing to pass laws that guarantee that I have control over my body and, consequently, over my life,” he explains to the BBC. .
Voters like her are the Democratic Party’s trump card in defying historical trends —The ruling party usually loses in the mid-term elections— and the polls that, given the low approval rating of President Joe Biden and the general discouragement due to inflation, they favor the Republican Party, at least in the race for the House of Representatives.
The Senate could be won by anyone, according to the political analysis site FiveThirtyEight.
For this reason, the Democrats have made it their workhorse, while the Republicans, advised by their advisers, adapt their strategy so that it does not play against them.
But to understand why it is so key, let’s go by parts.
What is decided in these elections and how can it affect the right to abortion?
In the so-called midterm elections, all the seats in the House of Representatives and a third of those in the Senate are at stake.
Today, Biden’s party controls both chambers: in the lower chamber it has 222 of the 435 votes and in the upper chamber, in which there is an even balance of forces (50-50), Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tiebreaker vote .
To turn the tables and win a majority in the House of Representatives, Republicans must win five seats in addition to keeping the ones they have. And to control the Senate they need an extra one, while the Democrats must win one or lose none.
“The reconfiguration of Congress can directly influence the daily lives of Americans across the country, and abortion is a good example of this,” explains Anthony Zurcher, a BBC reporter specializing in American politics.
“After the Supreme Court struck down the constitutional protection of the right to abortion (and left it up to the states to legislate on the matter), both parties have promised to pass new national laws on the issue if they gain control of Congress“, he continues.
The Democratic Party has promised to protect the right to voluntary termination of pregnancy, while the Republican Party has proposed a ban on abortion at the federal level beyond the 15th week of gestation.
“And certain results in local races and gubernatorial elections in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan could mean more restrictions on the practice there,” Zurcher adds.
So what weight is abortion expected to have in deciding who to vote for?
According to the latest Pew Research Center poll on the issue, conducted in August, 56% of voters believe abortion will be a “very important” reason to go to the polls this November 8.
Another carried out by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) revealed last week that this issue is a key factor of mobilization for voters, especially among Democrats and those who live in states where abortion is now illegal.
Half of those consulted said that the repeal of the constitutional protection of abortion motivated them more to vote in this year’s elections, compared to 43% in July and 37% in May.
Specifically, this reason was cited by a 69% of Democrats, 49% of independents and 32% of Republicans. Additionally, 3 out of 5 women ages 18-59 who said they are likely to vote cite it as a reason.
And 41% of those who participated in another poll just released by NBC News said that Supreme Court ruling made them more likely to vote Democratversus 24% who said it made them more likely to support Republicans.
The survey was conducted by WPA Intelligence, a Republican Party political consulting firm, in the states where the race is expected to be closest (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Nevada). And when asked which side they would be on in the debate on abortion, 54% answered “in favor of the right to decide” and 39% “pro-life.”
What other signs are there that it is a relevant issue in these elections?
Analysts and political strategists mention the increase in the registration of new voters since the revocation of Roe vs. Wadeespecially womenas another indication of the weight that the abortion issue has in these elections and that it could help the Democratic Party at the polls.
According to Vote.orga nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, in the two weeks following the Supreme Court ruling, its website saw a 332% increase in users registering to vote compared to the previous two weeks.
And an August analysis of Upshot, a specialized site of New York Timesof 10 states with available data on voter registration showed that the number of women registered to vote increased by 35% after the decision, while that of men grew by 9%.
The most optimistic see the results of the special elections carried out in a series of districts – such as in New York, where the Democrats won a seat after making the right to voluntary termination of pregnancy their banner – and the consultation on abortion held in August in the conservative state of Kansas.
With a historic level of participation, 60% of voters rejected changing the state Constitution to restrict the right to abortion, an unexpected victory in this Republican stronghold.
Now, in the midterm elections, voters in five states will decide on ballot initiatives on the issue.
while in California, Michigan and Vermont must vote on amendments to state constitutions that seek to protect access to abortion, voters in Kentucky and Montana they will be consulted on proposals to restrict access to the practice and grant legal rights to fetuses.
“Let’s be clear: Abortion access is one of the top motivating factors for voters. The polls tell us that. The number of women registering to vote across the country tells us that. Kansas tells us that,” she says. Jenny Lawson, executive director of Planned Parenthood Votes, the program launched by the largest reproductive health service in the US to support the candidacies of defenders of this right.
The analysis of Barrett Marson, a Republican strategist, is not very different. “The vote in Kansas was a wake-up call for republicans. And not only is the most extreme restrictions on abortion not a good starting point for attracting voters, but the whole issue has become a Democratic motivation to go to the polls,” she told Guardian.
Given this, what is the strategy of the Democrats? And what about the Republicans?
Democrats have placed abortion on the center of your campaign and they have tried to keep it generating headlines.
“The MAGA Republicans (Make America Great AgainTrump’s motto) cheered and celebrated the first Supreme Court decision in our history that not only failed to preserve a constitutional freedom, but removed a fundamental right that was granted by the same court to so many Americans,” he said. President Biden last week.
His party has also invested million dollars in ads about the topic; about $213 million, versus $11 million from Republicans, according to AdImpact, a firm that tracks advertising.
Meanwhile, activists from “pro-life” organizations have visited potential voters in their homes to convince them to support candidates who promise to increase restrictions on abortion.
They make arguments similar to those shared by the young Texan Melanie Salazar with the BBC: “An abortion procedure intentionally ends the life of an unborn human being. That should not be the answer to any situation.”
But the Republican Party has left the issue in the background to focus campaign messages on the economy and insecurity.
And some Republican candidates have softened his stance on the issue in speeches and on their campaign websites.
This is the case of Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters.
In an interview with the Catholic outlet EWTN in March, he said of abortion: “Every society has had some form of human or child sacrifice, and this is our way. And it has to end.”
In August, the Trump-backed candidate toned down his stance in an ad, saying: “Look, I support a ban on late-term and partial-birth abortion. And most Americans agree with this. This would put us at on a par with other civilized nations.
But what effects will all this end up having? Will abortion end by changing the course of elections historically unfavorable to the ruling party, as the Democratic Party would like?
Or will it be the state of the economy and Biden’s low approval ratings that will end up defining his outcome, as the Republican has bet?
Source: Elcomercio
I, Ronald Payne, am a journalist and author who dedicated his life to telling the stories that need to be said. I have over 7 years of experience as a reporter and editor, covering everything from politics to business to crime.
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