They are not only legislative elections in the United States: they are a plebiscite between Biden and Trump

donald trump knows that the key to return to the White House will not be achieved in 2024, when the general elections are held in USAbut this Tuesday the 8th, the day of the legislative elections -the ‘midterm’- that could give the Republicans the majority they need in the House of Representatives and the Senate, in addition to several key governorships in various states of the country.

For this reason, it is almost a fact that on Monday the 14th -according to anonymous sources who have spoken with various US media- he will loudly announce his candidacy for re-election.

With both chambers under his control, the former president of United Statess would have the smoothest path for his campaign.

READ ALSO: Trump paves the way for 2024 and Biden is on the defensive in the legislative elections

On the other side, the Democrat Joe Biden knows that these elections are a kind of plebiscite on his management at the head of the administration. Historically, the ruling party does not usually win a majority in the ‘midterms’, but this time the shadow of Trump – which continues to argue that there was fraud two years ago – makes it imperative for the current head of state that his party controls at least the Senate.

For this reason, both are directing all their efforts to support their candidates by touring the country and giving speeches. For many, it is like a continuation of the 2020 elections in which both were the protagonists and that, probably, will face them again in 2024.

In these elections, the 435 seats of the House of Representatives (until now controlled by the Democrats), a third of the Senate (made up of 100 seats and also controlled by the Democrats with just one seat difference), 36 governorships and hundreds of state charges.

“Trump won,” says the t-shirt of this Republican supporter of the former president. Trump has attended several rallies to support his candidates in the legislative elections on November 8. REUTERS/Mike Segar (MIKE SEGAR/)

what the numbers say

The polls, however, are not giving an encouraging picture for the Democrats. Although we know ad nauseam that the polls can no longer be taken literally, the figures help show the scenario that could come. And the numbers, so far, have favored the Republicans, especially in the lower house, where the matter seems closed.

According to Real Clear Politics, which tends to take averages from various polls, .

The FiveThirtyEight portal, which analyzes probabilities, points out that the Republicans have an 84% chance of controlling the lower house.

. Also according to Real Clear Politics, the Republican Party would get 48 seats, while the Democrats would keep 44. Eight are still up for grabs in states like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Washington.

For FiveThirtyEight, Republicans have a 55% chance of controlling the Senate, while Democrats have a 45% chance.

The possibility of a red wave – the characteristic color of the Republicans – is on the table, especially in state governorships. Trump’s party could win in 24 states, while Biden’s in 14. In 11 states the fight is very close.

The key: the economy

To achieve this advantage in the polls, the Republican Party has been able to take advantage of one of the most sensitive issues for citizens: inflation. The high price of gasoline, food and housing has raised doubts about how the Democrats have managed the crisis caused by the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the global recession.

President Joe Biden at a campaign rally in Philadelphia with former President Barack Obama and Pennsylvania Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman. EFE/EPA/WILL OLIVER (WILL OLIVER/)

According to a recent Quinnipiac University poll, while other independent polls even indicate that 46% give priority to the economic issue.

And it is that year-on-year inflation as of September marked 8.2%, which has caused an increase in food prices by 11.2% compared to 2021. Gasoline, meanwhile, costs 18.8% more than a year ago. year. On the economic issue, the Democrats – with Biden in the lead – defend themselves with the good employment figures and the packages of laws promoted by the ruler, such as the one on infrastructure, but whose results would only be seen in the medium term. Not now, when votes are needed.

“Republicans are taking advantage of this perception of economic reality. And this message has been much more effective than that of the Democrats, who have tried to sell the economic success of the laws that President Biden has passed, such as the infrastructure package, but they do not transmit it in the right way”, express to this newspaper Maria Puerta Riera, Professor of Political Science at Valencia College in Orlando. “The Democrats have had a bad communication strategy,” add.

The complex issue of abortionwhich was thought to be key in this election after the decision, taken in June, by the Supreme Court to revoke the 1973 ruling that enshrined the right to interrupt pregnancy throughout the country, has been overshadowed by the debates on the economy, crime and immigration.

This has meant that even normally Democratic states, like New York, are now in contention. Polls show a very close race for the governorship between Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican Lee Zeldin.

The most faithful followers of Donald Trump continue to think that the former president won the 2020 elections and are convinced that he should return to the presidency in 2024. REUTERS/Mike Segar (MIKE SEGAR/)

An impeachment?

President Biden has also chosen to define this election as a fight for democracy, since the memory of the assault on Capitol Hill is still fresh and many Trumpist Republicans continue to doubt the results of 2020. In fact, of the 596 Republicans who are running for different positions, 308 have questioned the validity of the presidential elections in which he won Joe Biden.

READ ALSO: How has extremism put the US election at risk?

For Trumpa victory for the Republicans will be a vindication of their arguments on the alleged fraud, and could even generate calls for an investigation or impeachment against the current president, as the Democrats did with Trump twice.

“It has already been anticipated that we are going to another ‘impeachment’. The Republicans are not only going for Biden, but for Kamala Harris, Secretary Antony Blinken, and Arturo Mayorkas, the head of the Department of Homeland Security.” comments laugh.

Given this scenario, the elections this Tuesday will not only serve to renew Congress, but also to determine if the destiny of the country can continue to be managed. Joe Biden or it will pass into the hands of donald trump

Source: Elcomercio