Who will be the rivals that Trump would have to beat to return to the White House in 2024 (and what options does he have)?

In a ceremony held in the grand reception room of his luxurious residence in Mar-a-Lago, Floridathe controversial donald trump put an end to the uncertainty about his wishes to return to the White Houseconfirming that he will present himself as a candidate for the 2024 presidential elections.

During his speech, Trump assured that the United States “could not bear” four more years under the command of Democrat Joe Biden, who defeated him in 2020 in an election that the Republican described as fraud without much support.

“I’ll make sure Biden doesn’t get four more years”Trump promised from Mar-a-Lago.

LOOK: Donald Trump confirms that he will be a presidential candidate in 2024 in the United States

The former president, whose departure was marked by the infamous assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, has thus taken the first step on a long road that will be marked by the various judicial processes filed against him and a list of contenders -both in his match like in the blue tent- they might have better chances than him.

NOT THE FAVORITE

The most recent polls published in the United States show that Trump does not have the best options on his side in his desire to return to the White House.

A survey carried out in September by the NBC network of registered voters shows that the Republican has a “very negative” image for 46% of those consulted, compared to 20% who consider him “very positive” and another 14% who rate him as “positive in some way”.

Similar results came from another poll, this time from Quinnipiac University conducted in August, where 56% of respondents said they had an unfavorable opinion of Trump. In this study, in addition, 62% assured that they did not want to see the eccentric New York billionaire as a presidential candidate in 2024.

However, it should be noted that it would not be the first time that Trump would have the polls against him. Although he dominated in all the voting preference polls for the 2016 primaries, the tycoon was losing the race against the Democrat Hillary Clinton according to the predictions of the different pollsters.

Until the day of the election, outlets like The New York Times gave Clinton a greater than 50% chance of winning the election that ultimately ended up taking Trump to the White House.

Voting intention polls for the 2016 elections showed Democrat Hillary Clinton as the clear favorite, who would end up losing the race to Trump.

THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES

But unlike 2016, Trump’s path to 2024 would look uphill from the party primaries.

Both the assault on the Capitol led by his supporters and the failure of the candidates supported by him during the midterm elections in which a red wave was expected that never came, have dented Trump’s image.

Even before his announcement, voices within the Republican Party calling for him to abandon his presidential dream had increased.

On the other hand, a BBC analysis highlights that, unlike in 2016, Trump would no longer have one of his greatest advantages: being the surprise of the election.

“Republicans will remember his inability to repeal Democratic health reforms and his repeated promises of investment in infrastructure that were never fulfilled. And then there’s Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which could expose him to attacks on multiple fronts.”, says journalist Anthony Zurcher in his analysis.

Another threat at home for Trump could be the re-elected governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis. According to an analysis by CNN journalist Chris Cillizza, DeSantis currently poses a “direct threat” to Trump.

“DeSantis has a knack for drawing headlines and has garnered considerable support for a deeply conservative agenda in his state, which touched on immigration, education, abortion, and more.”Cillizza writes.

The governor of Florida has not yet confirmed if he will go after the presidential election in 2024, but in the last elections several of his followers chanted “two more years” in reference to the time he would remain in office before resigning to compete for the republican nomination.

Despite the fact that he has not yet confirmed that he will run as a presidential candidate, DeSantis has been gaining great popularity among Republicans, the same that was reflected in his re-election as governor of Florida during the last midterm elections. (GIORGIO VIERA – AFP /)

Other names on Cillizza’s list include South Carolina Senator Tim Scott; Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin; Texas Senator Ted Cruz; and, most likely, former Trump Vice President Mike Pence.

The latter has grabbed different headlines in the US media in recent days, after he published his memoirs and described as “coward” to Trump for having been “part of the problem”, in reference to the assault on the Capitol, an event where, in addition, Pence highlights, “they put me, my family and everyone in the Capitol building in danger”.

It should be remembered that the then vice president was at the legislative headquarters as part of the confirmation process of Biden’s victory. Revelations made by the special committee investigating said assault suggest that Trump would have instigated his followers to attack Pence if necessary.

THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE

From the Democratic store, on the other hand, there are several names that are outlined for the 2024 elections.

The list is headed, evidently, by the current president Joe Biden, who has announced that he will wait until the beginning of next year to reveal whether he will run for re-election or seek a replacement.

Following Trump’s announcement, Biden wrote on his Twitter account that “Trump failed America.” The Republican’s nomination could be decisive for the current president’s decision.

If so, the Democratic primaries would be almost defined in his favor, as has traditionally been the case. Its popularity at the national level, however, is not going through its best moment.

The survey carried out in September by NBC shows that 40% have a “very negative” perception of Biden, compared to 22% who consider him “very positive” and another 20% who describe him as “positive in some way”.

Biden has not yet confirmed that he will run for re-election in 2024, an announcement that he will make only at the beginning of next year, according to what he said. (MANDEL NGAN/)

In the other scenario, where he would opt for a relay, names such as the current vice president Kamala Harris, the Secretary of Transportation, Pete Buttigieg, or the current governor of California, Gavin Newson, appear.

In the case of Harris, who is emerging as the most likely option in a race without Biden, the outlook does not look very encouraging. Since his arrival to the vice presidency, Harris has seen his popularity decline, marked mainly by the mission to deal with the flow of immigrants to the United States that the Republican Party has taken it upon itself to criticize.

Thus, Harris has gone from 44% support in 2021 to 39% today, while his disapproval has taken off from 43% to 54% in the same period, according to a balance of different polls carried out by the Los Angeles Times. .

Source: Elcomercio