Is Xiomara Castro consolidating or in danger before assuming the government of Honduras?

the leftist Xiomara Castro will assume the government of Honduras on Thursday “very consolidated” very consolidated for some and in “danger” for others in the face of the political crisis within their party that broke out after the election of two presidents of Congress.

“The lady (Castro) is not at risk. It is consolidating”Raúl Pineda, an analyst and former deputy for the right-wing National Party (PN, led by outgoing president Juan Orlando Hernández), told AFP.

However, the analyst and professor of Sociology at the National University, Eugenio Sosa, told AFP that “A high-profile crisis is coming, it is in danger that Xiomara Castro will not even take office.”

“There is also a danger of a new coup d’état,” alerted.

The Honduran Congress appointed two presidents this Sunday in separate ceremonies, tinging the inauguration with uncertainty.

Nineteen dissident deputies from Castro’s party, Libertad y Refundación (Libre), with the support of right-wing formations, elected Jorge Cálix as president of Congress in a social center.

In parallel, parliamentarians from Libre loyal to Castro and the Salvador Party of Honduras (PSH) appointed Luis Redondo, from the latter formation and within the framework of an agreement between both parties, in the Congress building.

Who is the legal owner?

The unknown is which of them is the legal holder of the legislature.

Xiomara Castro –wife of the ousted president Manuel Zelaya in 2009– went to congratulate Redondo surrounded by supporters outside the headquarters of Congress and invited him to take the oath of office on Thursday.

A high-ranking source from the judiciary who asked not to be identified told AFP that a swearing-in by the president before Redondo “may be considered illegal.”

“The swearing-in of Cálix on Friday as provisional president was endorsed by an act of the Minister of the Interior, Leonel Ayala, which gives it legality”, he claimed.

Before being sworn in this Sunday, Cálix had taken office on Friday as provisional president in a session full of aggression between deputies loyal to Castro and dissidents.

For his part, Sosa considered that the vote of the dissidents outside Congress had more regular deputies than that of Redondo, who was voted for by several substitutes, granting “legalityto Calix.

But “Xiomara is not going to fall. She is going to recognize Redondo, she is going to have the decrees approved by Redondo published in La Gaceta”, estimated.

Political analyst and former sociology professor Edgardo Castro warned that “The real crisis is going to explode when Xiomara sends the first bill (of law) to an illegal president”, alluding to Redondo.

and agreed that “The one who was recognized by the Minister of the Interior was Cálix”, adding that the outgoing government is preparing to publish this Monday in the official Gazette.

death by inertia

“I don’t see a future for Jorge Cálix. What are Cálix and the rest of (his) friends going to do when they don’t even have a way to pay their salaries? because the transfers are controlled by Xiomara”, considered Pineda.

“The matter is of a political nature, it transcended the legal. The lady will control the economic resources of Congress, the security forces, while (…) the dissident group will die by inertia, it is only a matter of days, “he added.

Víctor Meza, who was a deputy in the Zelaya government (2006-2009) and currently directs the non-governmental Honduran Documentation Center (Cedoh), agrees.

Is the inauguration “in danger? No,” he pointed out.

However, he said that what “is at risk is the coming of the vice president” of the United States, Kamala Harris, and “I understand that Washington has advised institutional mediation.”

“I think that Xiomara comes out stronger, she is going to have a loyal Congress, which is going to accompany her, she needs a strong Congress to recover the institutionality, the Rule of Law”, cracked after the 2009 coup, explained Meza.

That “is an impressive task, which cannot be done with a Congress set up by Jorge Cálix,” he said, adding that this directive from Congress “is going to evaporate” because “it has no resources,” he added.

Disrespect for the Constitution

For his part, the former state commissioner for Human Rights, Roberto Herrera Cáceres, attributed the conflict to disrespect for the Constitution since its validity in 1982, when civilian governments took office after almost 20 years of military coup governments.

Since 1982, “we have come down the wrong path of disrespect for the Constitution. The democratic state, the rule of law, has not been possible, its application was made to benefit individuals and political and economic groups”, expressed Herrera Cáceres when analyzing the causes of the constant political crises that affect Honduras.

“Agreements have been created that have led to this deviation by interests that are determined by corruption,” he asserted and expressed his hope of “returning to the constitutional channel, so we can find that common goal of dignity, common welfare and social justice.”

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