What is Turkish leader Erdogan looking for by proposing himself as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine?

While the tension between Russia Y Ukraine does not let up, the president of Turkey peeks at his neighbors through the window. Dissatisfied with squeezing his fears (“These regions cannot tolerate war, it would not be right”) and in an outburst that breaks his style, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been nominated as an arbitrator. “We can do mediation for peace“, has said.

The proposal is strange. “He is a very non-talkative person. In Turkey there are political prisoners, prisoners for crimes of opinion, imprisoned journalists”, remembers Enrique Banús, director of the Institute of European Studies of the University of Piura.

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Indeed: according to Human Rights Watch, the last four years have been fatal for human rights in Turkey. “Executive control and political influence over the judiciary has led to courts systematically accepting false accusations, arresting and convicting individuals and groups the Erdogan government considers to be political opponents, despite a lack of evidence.”.

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And impossible to forget when Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, visited the country together with Charles Michel, President of the European Council. At the meeting, which took place at the presidential palace in April last year, only seats were provided for the men, not for von der Leyen.

Despite international disrepute, Erdogan is running. Banús remembers that it is not the first time he has done it. “Years ago he tried to be a mediator between Israel and the Palestinians, at a time when Egypt, which usually plays that role, was in low hours”.

“This mediation was more understandable because, after all, they share a space and he wanted to recreate the Ottoman Empire and become the center of the region”.

“But it didn’t work out”.

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Get famous and…

What does Erdogan want to achieve with his proposal? Banus explains that “he is looking for anything that gives him a positive image” because “Turkey is very bad for a series of political and economic measures that he himself took”.

The Turkish lira, for example, plunged 45% in early December 2021 due to its “unorthodox politics”. The BBC recalls that, in the last two years, Erdogan dismissed “three presidents of the Central Bank”.

The president, says the media, strives to “keep interest rates low to boost economic growth and export potential”, but it is not working.

True to form, he appealed to nationalist instincts and asked citizens to exchange their foreign currency for the national currency. Meanwhile, anyone who contradicts official figures risks ending up in jail.

“El País” recalls that an investigation has just been opened against a group of scientists who question “official data” on inflation, while journalists and even a “former Governor of the Central Bank” are in the same danger for doubting “government economic forecasts”.

In the midst of all this, says Banús, the Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu, is winning preferences in the electorate. “He is a contender who is not from his party”.

“That is why he has been proposed as an arbitrator. It’s their way of saying, ‘Here I am, ‘I’m relevant’”.

regional relevance

Umut Aydin, Turkish researcher and doctor in Political Science, shares some of Banús’s opinions. The Turkish economy is going through a storm so it is valid to read the mediation offer as “a strategy to distract attention”.

“prevent a war between Russia Y Ukraine could help increase your popularity”.

Aydin also proposes to observe the Erdogan’s transnational interests. For her, this can be read as a “attempt to show Turkey’s continued relevance as a regional power”.

“The different governments of the AKP (Justice and Development Party) have sought the same thing. It is nothing new. But in the past decade, that goal has become more important because of tepid relations with U.S and the European Union”.

With this, Erdogan wants to reaffirm himself geopolitically and, perhaps, take advantage of relations with Russia, which “They have been very friendly in the last few years.”.

Of course, Aydin recalls, the option that maintaining peace in the region is a genuine incentive in itself should also be considered.

“If he manages to bring Putin to the table for negotiations, which is something I doubt, it would be a very important achievement for Turkish foreign relations.”.

With this scenario, Erdogan will travel to Ukraine in February to talk with his president Volodomir Zelensky. Will you make any progress?

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Deshawn