Food inflation: the price of our basket fell by 1.6% in a month

The decline has begun. Lightweight, slow, and not necessarily noticeable to consumer wallets. But at the beginning of July, the price of our basket of 31 everyday products fell by 1.6% compared to the previous month, from 122.71 euros to 120.75 euros.

This slight drop reflects the subtle slowdown in food inflation recorded by INSEE over the past two months – with an estimated +13.6% year-on-year increase in June from +14.3% in May – and which could well continue through the summer. Especially as Economics Minister Bruno Le Maire promised in early June that hundreds of food prices would fall in “waves” between July, August and September, in line with commitments made to Bercy by 45 major food producers.

Does this apply to the products in our shopping cart? Not really at the moment. As we have explained in recent days, very few manufacturers have already played this game. Even if our selection is not exhaustive, the prices of the main product groups in our panel have, for the most part, not changed. Only compotes in pumpkin lost 3 cents, and unsalted butter lost 4 cents.

More expensive increase of 20.8% compared to February 2022

For others, the labels have even been revised upwards. This is especially true for ham (+1.4%), organic eggs (+7.5%) and Nutella (+7.2%). As for cereals with organic honey, their price dropped in July, but after a jump in June due to the fact that the brand only offered packages of 620 g instead of 320 g. However, the July price (4.09 euros) is still higher than in February 2022 when we first fixed the price when it was sold for 3.69 euros.

The real drops in July are actually mostly due to fresh produce, including the prices of seasonal fruit and vegetables dropping sharply: -50% for round shaped organic tomatoes and -15% for organic kiwifruit. As for products under their own brand (grated emmental, pasta, potatoes with hazelnuts), their price has not changed since February 2023.

Can we, therefore, finally rejoice in the fall in the cost of food? Yes and no. Because since the start of inflation, in February 2022, prices for fresh or processed food have always been near peak prices on store shelves. At that time, to buy 31 items from our shopping cart, one had to pay less than 100 euros (99.98 euros). In July, despite a very slight drop, the basket is still worth 20.8% more than a year and a half ago.