Deciphering the immediate future, by Matías Maciel

The exchange rate in recent days does not show a defined trend. A week ago, we would have said that it shows a very slight upward trend, but uninterrupted. However, in recent days it has stopped rising, even showing days of decline.

The readings regarding this are mixed. Locally, until the 15th the exchange rate It had downward pressure, since the deadline for depositing the CTS to employees expired, so companies require soles seasonally. On the other, at the political level the comings and goings continued, both from the legislative sphere (with the granting or not of special powers), and from the Executive Branch. Noises related to the composition of the Cabinet of Ministers remain, adding uncertainty and affecting the business climate in the country. At the same time, this is combined with very positive news regarding the progress of the economy during 2021, with growth much higher than expected (reaching pre-pandemic levels; + 13%) and recovery in employment levels.

On the international side, the global economic rebound after the contraction due to the pandemic, added to problems in the supply chain, have once again put inflation on everyone’s lips. This has led countries like the United States to start raising interest rates again (Peru has been doing the same for months) putting pressure on exchange rates worldwide. Let us understand that the higher the performance in dollarit is more attractive to position itself in that currency. On the other hand, inflation in dollarIt is also pushing exchange rates up.

In conclusion, there are currently many factors, both external and internal, influencing the price of the dollar. In the case of the value of the Sun, we believe that it will be very important that economic growth continues, with the improvement of the expectations of economic agents for next year and that the external context does not turn negative to sustain the price of the currency. Barring notable events, political noise appears to be no longer affecting the price of the dollar so decisively. Finally, we believe it is important to continue highlighting the macroeconomic and financial strengths that the country maintains, which allow us to assert that the price of the dollar is still at high levels.