Why the forecast for 2022 is something to smile about

This is good news for the end of the year: the job market looks set to be auspicious for 2022, according to an economic report from INSEE made public on Tuesday. Job creations will continue, even if it is at a slower pace than in 2021. “In the second half of 2021, job creations were 153,000. They will be around 80,000 in the first half of 2022, ”announces Julien Pouget, head of the economic situation department at INSEE.

It must be said that the lifting of health restrictions last spring was accompanied by a resumption of consumption of the French who, after having saved for long months, wanted to have fun. This has led to a strong recovery in many sectors, increased growth and strong recruitment needs. INSEE even predicts that at the end of June 2022, salaried employment will exceed its pre-crisis level at the end of 2019. And many sectors will be affected by these new positions: “Services, restaurants, hotels, trade , leisures… ”, enumerates Olivier Simon, head of the conjunctural synthesis division of INSEE.

The unemployment rate will continue to decline

Another figure that calls for optimism: “The unemployment rate will continue to decline in the first quarter of 2022, to settle at 7.7% and it will gradually decline in the second quarter to land at 7.6%”, announces Olivier Simon. And even if the health situation is uncertain and poses risks to the French economy, Julien Pouget is confident: “The economy is now better able to resist the waves of Covid-19”.

Positive forecasts which join that of the ManpowerGroup * barometer published on Tuesday. For the period January-March 2022, hiring intentions increased by 26% compared to the same period in 2021. “The government forecasts a 4% increase in GDP in France in 2022, after a record of more than 6% in 2021. The expectations of business leaders reflect the persistence of this good direction ”, comments Alain Roumilhac, president of ManpowerGroup France. Same story with Alexandre Judes, economist at Indeed, job search engine: “In 2021, the economy lived on a drip, which limited the destruction of jobs. And the recovery plans have boosted creations ”.

Many sectors that will be promising

According to ManpowerGroup, hiring intentions for the period January-March 2022 will be positive in all sectors of activity: education, health, social, construction, IT (information technology), Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, manufacturing industry… And it is in the area of ​​banking and finance that forecasts are highest (+ 42%). For its part, Indeed provides a lot of job offers in certain job families “such as home care, cleaning, childcare, pharmacy, medical-technical assistance …”, notes Alexandre Judes.

It is in the Paris region and the Center-West that hiring intentions are most positive, according to ManpowerGroup. And it is companies with more than 250 employees that will recruit the most. Because they are the ones who have best withstood the vagaries of the health crisis.

Difficulties in recruiting for many companies

While these prospects are positive, there is nevertheless an unknown for the coming months: will the profile of candidates meet the expectations of recruiters? And will companies be able to attract applicants? A Pôle emploi study published this month indicated that 7 out of 10 companies that had sought to recruit between April and September 2021 said they had encountered difficulties. Either because they did not receive enough applications, or because they were inadequate. The study also underlined that the health crisis had led to a change in behavior among the candidates, who had become “more demanding than before the crisis in terms of working conditions and remuneration, and less geographically mobile”. A phenomenon that Alexandre Judes also notes: “More and more candidates are looking more for the word” telework “in job offers than before the crisis”.

These tensions on the market are pushing employers to broaden their criteria, according to Pôle emploi. Or by going to less experienced and less qualified candidates. Either by offering better working conditions or by increasing hiring wages. “In November 2021, we saw an increase in starting salaries on our offers of 2.9% compared to November 2020. And in certain sectors, recruiters have an interest in being less focused on the CV than on the aptitudes” , advises Alexandre Judes.