This is the grim scenario developed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). About 35 million new cancer cases are expected to be detected in 2050, or 77% more than in 2022, the WHO agency that specializes in the disease said on Thursday.
“The rapid increase in the global cancer burden reflects both population aging and growth and changes in people’s exposure to risk factors,” the agency said. Tobacco, alcohol, obesity and air pollution are “key drivers of rising disease rates.”
Based on data from 185 countries, IARC projects a 50% increase in the annual number of new cases diagnosed between 2022 and 2040 (about 30 million) and a 77% increase between 2022 and 2050 (an expected 35 million). On average, one in five people will develop cancer during their lifetime, predicts Dr. Freddie Bray, head of cancer surveillance at IARC.
In 2022, a large study published in The Lancet found that nearly half of the world’s cancer cases are associated with some risk factor. Tobacco is by far the main cancer-causing element (33.9%), followed by alcohol (7.4%). However, more than half of cancers are not associated with any specific risk factor, showing that prevention is not enough. Therefore, according to the authors, this must be accompanied by two other pillars: early enough diagnosis and effective treatment.
Strong geographical differences
IARC estimates that the number of cancer cases diagnosed worldwide in 2022 will be 19.96 million. Almost half of the cases detected in 2022 (9.8 million) are concentrated in Asia, according to IARC. in this area. What is less logical from the point of view of demographic weight, almost a quarter of diagnoses (4.5 million) are concentrated in Europe alone (in a broad sense, including Russia). This feature is due to “record rates of common cancers such as prostate and breast cancer in many European countries,” explains Dr Bray.
Cancer predominantly affects older people, with three quarters of diagnoses occurring in people over 55 years of age. IARC estimates that the number of deaths from cancer in 2022 will be 9.74 million. Cancer kills more men than women: out of 100 deaths, an average of 56 men to 44 women. The main explanation: Lung cancer is the biggest killer, with 1.8 million deaths in 2022, and the first to be affected are men, historically the heaviest smokers.
Source: Le Parisien
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