The future of the pandemic is here, by Elmer Huerta

Already in the second year of the pandemic, one of the most frequent questions that epidemiologists, health authorities and the general public ask themselves is: when and how will the pandemic? For many, the future of the pandemic has already arrived: it is in its final phase, slowly becoming an endemic. However, a consensus would be needed in the clear description of the parameters that tell us that we are indeed at the end, and that we have to learn to live with the virus.

It is possible that of all the elements related to the pandemic, the most imperishable – because of the traumatic nature – is the one related to the images of illness and death associated with it. COVID-19.

With more than five million deaths associated with this disease on the planet –that the– and with more than 200,000 deaths in Peru –which places us as the country with the highest mortality rate in the world–, the images of overcrowded patients in the corridors of hospital emergencies, exhausted health professionals crying out for personal protection elements, families desperate to get a hospital bed for their loved ones, collapsed health systems and lack of oxygen, medicines, respirators and ICU beds , among others, will never be erased from our memory.

Let us remember that for every hundred people with COVID-19Eighty had very mild outpatient cases, 15 were more severe but did not require hospital care, and only five or fewer needed to be admitted to a hospital. That statistic, which was fulfilled throughout the world, makes us have to accept that all

“For every one hundred people with COVID-19, eighty had very mild outpatient cases …”.

–The course of the pandemic–

In this context, what happens when we see that –thanks to vaccination– the rates of hospitalization and death due to COVID-19 They are at their lowest point in the pandemic.

Reality shows us two interesting cases, a country in which only 33.6% of its population has been fully vaccinated and where the high number of cases of COVID-19 it causes a high rate of hospitalization and world records of mortality. In other words, in regions with low vaccination rates, the pandemic behaves as it did at the beginning.

On the other hand, in which 67.1% of its population is fully vaccinated, the high number of cases does not translate into an increase in hospitalizations and deaths. So vaccination has been able to change the course of the pandemic.

Has the time then come for a great conceptual change to take place in the scientific community, a change that translates into health policies that give less weight to the number of cases of COVID-19, and much more importance to hospitalizations and deaths?

In other words, knowing that the virus will never disappear and that it will be with us forever – and that therefore we will never have zero cases, zero hospitalizations, and zero deaths – an emotionally charged question – but one that every ruler must answer – is:

The answer to that question will decide the fate of multiple regulations that are currently paralyzing society. When should the offices open? When should businesses be fully opened? When should face masks and masks be stopped?

The advent of antiviral drugs – such as molnupiravir and Pfizer’s recently announced antiviral combination – will play a very important role in that context. By reducing the possibility of hospitalization and death, societies will be more willing to return to normalcy, learn to live with the virus and erase the daunting images of the past.

“If a region has fewer than 10 positive cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 inhabitants, the risk of contagion is very low.”

–Epidemiological surveillance–

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States (CDC) specify that This is common sense, the less virus exists in the community, the lower the possibility of contagion.

If that is the case, then it is fair to ask who is responsible for ensuring that society has detailed information on the prevalence of infection, hospitalizations, deaths, and vaccination coverage, information that helps determine public health policies at the community level. Without a doubt, in the case of Peru it is the Ministry of Health (Minsa).

As an example, with a simple click, This columnist finds that in the city where he lives (Washington DC), there are an average of 82 cases per day, which represents 12 cases per 100,000 inhabitants; that in the last 14 days, cases have decreased by 12%; that today there are seven hospitalized for COVID-19; that hospitalizations have decreased by 27% in the last 14 days; that there is an average of 0.1 deaths per day, which represents 0.01 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants; and that 60% of the population is fully vaccinated.

With this information, in the same way that we accept the risk of suffering a traffic accident just by going out on the road. Without that information, that transit takes place in the dark.

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