We must be ready for the arrival of omicron

The variant omicron It was announced in South Africa on November 24 and the information that has been generated about it, in the last three weeks, is overwhelming. There are three fundamental questions in public health: how much more contagious is the delta variant, what type of disease it causes, and how much it is capable of escaping the neutralizing antibodies produced by natural disease and vaccines.

—Contagiousness—

There is no doubt that omicron is much more contagious than delta and, depending on the source, it can be said to be from From a four times more contagious. Considering that delta was already two times more contagious than alpha and that this was in turn one and a half times more contagious than the original variant, the omicron variant – compared to the Wuhan strain – has become one of the most contagious viruses of the nature.

This extraordinary contagion has meant that, in just three weeks, omicron has completely displaced the delta, and it has become the predominant variant in South Africa. Similarly, by doubling the cases of COVID-19 every two or three days in the UK, managed in just two weeks to surpass the 93.000 cases on the 17th of this month, the highest number during the pandemic. The omicron is anticipated to be the dominant variant in the UK before the end of the year.

This huge increase in cases has caused hospitals in London to begin to fill up, more than due to the number of patients (which is increasing little by little), because it is estimated that after being infected, 10% of the workforce has stopped working . According to a BBC report, there are almost 1,400 patients with COVID-19 interned in London hospitals. It’s a 30% increase from the end of November, 195 of which are connected to fans.

“This extraordinary contagiousness has caused omicron to completely displace the delta variant.”

In other European countries, omicron has spread very rapidly, and it is estimated that, mid-January 2022, will become the predominant variant on the continent, displacing the delta.

In the US, the situation is no different. In one week, the proportion of cases of COVID-19 per omicron it went up seven times: from 0.4% to almost 3%. That explains 13% of cases in New York City.

The queues that people with symptoms in New York City and South Florida have to queue to get tested for COVID-19They are gigantic and reminiscent of those that existed during the previous severe waves. A genomic analysis of sewage waters in Orlando, Florida indicated that 100% of samples He has an omicron, when a week ago no case had been found.

That speed of contagion will undoubtedly make omicron –As happened with delta– will become the predominant variant in Latin America in the next six to eight weeks.

—Escape the vaccines—

Data from South Africa, the UK and the US show that omicron easily infects people who have already had COVID-19as well as people who have been vaccinated, including those who have received booster doses. A UK study, not yet peer-reviewed, found that the effectiveness of two doses of Pfizer or AstraZeneca per symptomatic omicron was reduced to less than 40% at 15 weeks after the second dose. The good news is that booster doses are able to elevate protection against infection up to by 70%.

While it is true that these seem ominous data, the truth is that a recent study found that booster doses could provide approximately 85% protection against serious illness and more than 90% protection against death caused by omicron.

“It is not good to be swayed by the news that omicron illness appears to be milder.”

-Virulence-

This is a piece of the puzzle that is not very clear, although a british study – not yet peer reviewed – finds no evidence that omicron causes less serious disease than delta. However, hospitalization data remains very limited at this time.

Initial data from New York shows that despite 21,027 cases (a record since the start of the pandemic), there are only 3,839 hospitalizations (compared to 18,825 at its peak).

-Corollary-

It is not good to be swayed by news that omicron illness appears to be milder. The point is that this variant, which does not take long to reach Peru, is a serious threat to public health because by infecting a very high number of people at the same time – many of them not vaccinated or partially vaccinated – it can cause a high number people needing ICU beds, which could lead to the dramatic collapse of health systems again.

Undoubtedly, omicron it spreads like a tsunami and now more than ever vaccination, especially with the booster dose, is critical to fighting it off.

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