Ómicron: characteristics of a spoiler this end of the year

The omicron variant, first identified last month in South Africa, has been accompanied by a rapid increase in reported COVID-19 cases that have essentially slid into the fourth epidemic wave, especially on the European continent.

The truth is that the identification of this new lineage has caused concern due to the large number of mutations present throughout its genome. In particular, some of them that are associated with an immune escape (going over the defenses that already exist against other variants) and a greater speed to infect due to variations in their peak protein.

The scientific world is rapidly studying the phenotypic behavior of this new expression of the Sars-CoV-2 and essentially on the clinical severity of the infections it causes. This would be the determining factor of its impact in a world that was beginning to turn the page of this epidemic.

Its presence in 110 countries, at a time when most are immersed in the end of the year festivities, has forced Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director of the World Health Organization (WHO), to say that “it is better to cancel now and celebrate later than to celebrate now and mourn later”, in a frank invocation for governments to reinforce the measures and apply the necessary restrictions to prevent hospital collapses and fatal outcomes, especially in places where vaccination is scarce.

This without neglecting that the same director of the WHO assured that “it is more likely that people who have been vaccinated or have recovered from covid-19 can be reinfected”, which has set off alarms early and caused a reaction of bans on all continents accompanied by the redefinition of the vaccination plans. Now, you have to apply booster doses and even slip through the application of fourth doses as measures of salvation.

However, even though some voices have stated that omicron could be more benevolent in terms of illness and death, Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist of the WHO, He went on to say that it is unwise to conclude from the first studies that omicron is a milder variant than the previous ones because with its contagion dynamics all health systems will be under pressure.

And the scientist is not without reason, because this lineage, in less than three weeks, has established itself as one of the most contagious viruses in recent history, so much so that it has been compared to measles, because it has already it equals its basic reproduction number (R0) (number of people infected by someone infected), which is between 12 and 18, which allows us to infer that in a few weeks it could cause the collapse of hospital systems, even the most robust.

“The low number of deaths per omicron should not be misleading, because if there are already deaths when the figures ten days ago were undetectable, omicron should be respected”, said spokesmen of the WHO.

Three cases of omicron detected in the Colombian coast a few days ago, according to the health worker Pedro León Cifuentes, are the initial quota of a process that could unleash a very sharp peak of cases and of short duration before mid-January. This if the controls are not tightened to stop its expansion. In this sense, Franklyn Prieto, director in charge of the National Institute of Health (INS), says that in front of omicron there are two scenarios: that of the United States and Europe and that of Latin America and South Africa.

In the first, according to Prieto, there is little exposure to the virus and less natural infection due to the application of extreme non-pharmacological measures, mainly quarantines, and a greater number of vaccinated in a period of more than six months and a mattress of unvaccinated permanent.

In the second scenario, which is Colombia, there is a greater contact with the virus, a lower number of vaccinated and a more recent vaccination, which determines a hybrid immunity (natural and vaccination) in a large proportion of the population that can play a determining role to face omicron, a what would be added the early application of the reinforcements.

“There is uncertainty; However, it must be taken into account that delta arrived in the country like the rest of the world, but its impact has not been so severe, so it would be expected that the arrival of omicron would have a low impact due to the fact that delta is of recent predominance “says Prieto.

Cifuentes is clear in saying that the country is not specifically shielded from omicron. Hence, it is necessary to act quickly and, in that sense, Carlos Álvarez, studies coordinator covid for Colombia delegate of the WHO, explains that the impact of this omicron variant, or any other variant, depends on how many people are susceptible when it begins to circulate significantly. For this reason, it is necessary to take advantage of these three or four weeks to vaccinate them.

But along with this, Gabriel Riveros, former Minister of Health, assures that the recommendations of the WHO should not be thrown away in the face of the restrictions that could be necessary in the coming days in the framework of the end of the year festivities .

“If the presence of omicron begins to be evident, there would be no reason not to make decisions that would even limit some events in risky places”, says the former minister.

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