Can Marine Le Pen win?

It looks like an alert rating: for the very first time in a second round poll against Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen was assessed at 48.5%. That was in a Harris Interactive Institute survey released on Monday. It succeeds another, published by Elabe, giving it 47.5%. For comparison, it would therefore be “better” than Ségolène Royal against Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007.

These are only two polls, of course, but the trend is there: if we take the average of the polls of the Politico site, the candidate of the National Rally progresses to reach 46%, thirteen points more than in the second round of 2017. To the point that the question now arises: can Marine Le Pen win on April 24? In her two best polls, the far-right candidate is even within the margin of error for victory.

less antipathy

It is not only in the voting intentions, moreover, that the deal has changed for Marine Le Pen. “Usually, the main problem for the National Rally – like the National Front before it – is that it worries”, notes Mathieu Gallard. Except that now, “only” 50% of voters feel antipathy for the candidate, against 62% on the eve of the first round in 2017.

“It has also improved its image of proximity to the population, its ability to understand expectations,” continues Mathieu Gallard. On other subjects, such as the sovereign or the ability to govern the country, she is behind the other candidates, but also in very clear progress. “And then she has a new asset: for the first time she has substantial voice reserves, recalls the pollster with reference to Eric Zemmour. The RN is no longer an isolated power. »

Not even afraid ?

What arouses fear in Macronie? Not in the least, says spokeswoman Maud Bregeon: “It’s not our role to be afraid! We are running our campaign and we have to explain how Marine Le Pen, who forms a tandem with Eric Zemmour, is dangerous for France. Emmanuel Macron himself struck down the sword against the one he places as his main adversary, during his meeting on Saturday: “It’s the fight for progress against withdrawal, the fight for patriotism and Europe against nationalists. April’s picks are simple, basically. »

Edouard Philippe, the former prime minister, is more worried: “Of course, Marine Le Pen can win,” he said last week. In her camp, some criticize her for this shock exit, thinking that she can mobilize even more within the far right, which already has the wind in its sails. According to Mathieu Gallard, it is rather the opposite: “The problem, for Marine Le Pen, is that if the polls are confirmed at the end of the first round, people will be really immersed in the hypothesis that the accession to power of the RN will become very concrete. »

“Backlash”

Clearly: the stronger the hypothesis of the victory of the RN, the more powerful the mobilization of voters to block it can be. In a thread posted on Twitter, the same Mathieu Gallard gives the example of the regional events of 2015. At the end of the first round, Marine Le Pen, in Hauts-de-France, and Marion Maréchal, in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, had such a lead that victory seemed likely. Except that in the second round, it was finally the LR lists that won, and rather largely. “The big question is whether such an anit-RN mobilization can happen again. Of this magnitude, given the evolution of the image and credibility of Marine Le Pen, obviously not, ”analyzes the pollster. “But even if it is the presidential election where she has the best chance, when we compare all the elements, she still remains misplaced today. »

There remains the unknown of the campaign: as we know, on the evening of the first round, a new campaign begins. In the event of a reissue of the Macron / Le Pen duel, we will undoubtedly compare with 2017. A campaign – and in particular a debate – missed in large widths by the FN candidate at the time. “It would be enough for it to do a little better for it to feel like a draw. »

But even if she had an excellent campaign, Mathieu Gallard believes that it would not be enough: “Emmanuel Macron does little campaigning and therefore attacks Marine Le Pen little, and she benefits from it. After the first round, we will have two weeks where Emmanuel Macron will persist in re-sticking him with the label of the far right. “It will therefore still require an awakening on the side of the outgoing campaign.