In this strange presidential campaign, upset by the health crisis and then the war in Ukraine, uncertainties remain. Will the ballot be marked by a historic abstention? Will the call for a “useful vote” by Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon be heard by voters? Who will be in the lead on Sunday evening? We take stock of the unknowns of the ballot.
- What participation rate?
This is THE great uncertainty. In the first round of the last regional elections, in June 2021, abstention rose to a historic rate of 66.72%. For Sunday, specialists fear that the record for a presidential election (28.4% in 2002) will also be beaten. “Due to the context, the epidemic and then the war, the French were not very interested in the ballot. Even if it goes back in recent days, we note in our surveys a level of interest of 50%. It is much lower than in 2017 at the same time, at 75% ”, observes Paule Cébille, political analyst at Ifop.
This “ballot box strike”, traditionally stronger among young people and the working classes, would not affect all candidates in the same way. It could therefore upset the results, even if Paul Cébille remains cautious. “During a presidential election, all the electorates mobilize, so there is a ripple effect that limits this uncertainty. Young people will probably vote less than the rest of the population, but they will mostly move around, so the young electorate will still be representative. »
- A “useful vote” followed?
Will voters vote for their ideas or by tactics? For several weeks, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has been calling on left-wing voters to “useful votes”, when he seems best placed to qualify for the second round. In the same logic, Marine Le Pen calls on Eric Zemmour’s supporters to strengthen “the national camp” from the first round, when Emmanuel Macron poses as a “bulwark” against the far right.
These instructions could weaken Fabien Roussel (PCF) or Yannick Jadot (EELV) on the left, but also Valérie Pécresse (LR) and Eric Zemmour (Reconquest!) on the right. “This useful vote will be a key to understanding the ballot, but it is difficult to measure,” admits Paul Cébille. “There is a high volatility of the French, many are still in hesitation. As a reminder, in 2017, a third of French people had decided in the last week and one in five the day before or the day of the vote, ”adds the specialist.
- Who will be in the lead in the first round?
In recent weeks, the polls seem to favor a new duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen for the second round, as in 2017. But while the Head of State has been racing in the lead continuously for many months, the investigations of the last days guarantee the suspense. “They are not in the same dynamics. Marine Le Pen is on the rise unlike Emmanuel Macron. We could therefore imagine a crossing of the curves by Sunday, which would change the analysis of the results, and perhaps the perspective of between the two rounds, ”adds the pollster.
- What balance of power left and right?
Beyond the two qualified candidates for the second round, uncertainty remains about the balance of power. On the left, if Jean-Luc Mélenchon is given largely in the lead in the polls, the battle between Yannick Jadot, Fabien Roussel and Anne Hidalgo promises to be tough. To the right of the political spectrum, the scores of Valérie Pécresse and Eric Zemmour will be particularly scrutinized. “This will not be the main lesson of Sunday evening, but these results will give important indications for the future of these parties, and for the possible political recomposition”, assures Paul Cébille.
Source: 20minutes
