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Vote of no confidence: to whom? With whom ? What are the chances of success? Keys to voting

The opposition must counterattack. After the announcement of the 49.3 outbreak by Elizabeth Bourne, the deputies of the National Assembly have until 15:20 Friday, 24 hours after the Prime Minister’s speech at the Palais Bourbon, to move a vote of no confidence or even several. If one of them is passed, the text of the pension reform will be rejected, and “the Prime Minister (will be obliged) to submit to the President of the Republic the resignation of the government”, as required by Article 50 of the Constitution. Absolutely decisive vote before the end of the five-year term.

How many deputies do you need?

To be introduced, a vote of no confidence must gather at least 10% of deputies, or 58 signatories. The National Rally (88 deputies) and France Insoumise (74 deputies) are the only ones who can make one proposal without the support of other parliamentary groups. It will then be necessary to wait at least 48 hours after its introduction, that is, at the earliest on Sunday afternoon, to vote (rather, it must pass before the Assembly on Monday), and “only positive votes count”, as section 49.2 provides. A vote of no confidence must be passed by an absolute majority.

“Traditionally it is 577 deputies. With several cancellations of elections, only 573 deputies remained. Thus, the absolute majority is no longer 289, but 287 people,” explains Jean-Philippe Durozier, a lawyer and specialist in constitutional law. Thus, this figure should be kept in mind before voting on this vote of no confidence: it would take 287 MPs to vote for the pension reform to be rejected and the government toppled.

Who will introduce a vote of no confidence?

As soon as the use of 49.3 was announced, various tenors of the opposition rushed to brandish the threat of mentioning censorship. The first opposition group in the Assembly and the first to meet, the National Assembly, in the voice of Marine Le Pen, demanded the resignation of Elizabeth Bourne. “She has to leave. The stay will be considered an additional slap in the face of the French people. (…) As for us, we will make a proposal. We hope that those who were going to vote against this pension reform will vote for a vote of no confidence. »

La Nupe, who had already made several proposals since the beginning of the second five-year plan, planned to do the same before 49.3. “Whoever sows chaos reaps censorship,” Matilda Panot, president of the LFI group in the National Assembly, justified herself on BFMTV. Another group, this time a centrist one, Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories (Lyott), should also get to work. “Without a response from the president of the republic, within a few hours we will submit a cross-party vote of no confidence,” said one of the leaders of the group, Bertrand Pancher.

On the other hand, no movement is visible from the Republican side. LR boss Eric Ciotti announced on Thursday that his party does not want to “create chaos upon chaos” and that he is not going to join “any votes of no confidence”.

Why is a vote of no confidence in Lyot most likely to succeed?

Here we enter into a purely political strategy. First, a vote of no confidence in the National Association has almost no chance of success. Reason? No Nupes member will sign a vote of no confidence in RN, several members assured this Thursday. With only 88 MPs, the far-right MPs have very little chance of getting the required 287 votes.

Scenario two: Nupes-specific vote of no confidence. Then we get down to serious business as the RN needs to support this action. “We will vote on all votes of no confidence that will be submitted,” Marine Le Pen promised on Thursday as she left the Palais Bourbon. At the same time, he only needs to miss about fifty votes in the left block to reach the goal.

This is where the cross-party vote of no confidence comes into play, brought by the Lyot group in the center and therefore more likely to be supported by the left and right semi-circle. “What we would like is a very open, cross-party vote of no confidence,” Charles de Courson assured on BFMTV this Friday. In this game, the entire left bloc and RN must vote for this proposal. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has even pledged to withdraw Nupe’s proposal “in favor of Lyot’s proposal” in order to “give as many chances as possible to censorship.”

Why will LR continue to be at the center of the debate?

Even in the most likely scenario of overthrowing the government, Lyot’s no-confidence vote should bring together about 257 deputies (left bloc, RN and Lyot). Thus, about thirty elected officials have yet to be convinced. If the hypothesis of a change in the course of the Renaissance, Modem and Horizons deputies can already be ruled out, then only the LR group remains, whose position will once again become decisive.

“We will not vote for any vote of no confidence,” Eric Ciotti said, saying that “the crisis in the country will not deal a death blow to our democracy today.” The MP of the Alpes-Maritimes indicated that the position was retained after the vote of the deputies of the Republic of Lithuania. “All members present agreed with the decision of the majority,” he said.

Thus, 61 deputies will not vote in unison for a vote of no confidence, but slingers exist. MP Aurélien Pradier calculated that “every MP remains completely free to participate in the next vote of no confidence.” From here to thirty? This is the whole question of negotiations at the Palais Bourbon in the coming days.

Source: Le Parisien

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