Why is this a capital issue for the government, 200 days before the election?

Fuels, gas, electricity: prices are heating up and, 192 days before the first round of the presidential election, the government too. It must be said that the announcements of an increase of around 12% in the gas and electricity bill are cause for concern for households which have been facing, for several months already, very high fuel prices. The government had already taken the initiative, in mid-September, by announcing an exceptional energy check of 100 euros for around 6 million modest households, but this will not be enough to cushion the shock.

This is why Jean Castex will make new announcements, in the 20 hours from TF1. This shows the importance of the subject, on the eve of the cold season. “The government can not miss it!, Warns the political scientist and sociologist at Kedge Business School, Virginie Martin, interviewed by 20 Minutes. The government still has in mind the precedent of “yellow vests”. The movement started with an increase in gasoline prices. “And it is true that the context looks a bit like that of the fall of 2018.” There is pressure on the prices of incompressible goods, the constrained expenditure of households “, notes from 20 Minutes economist Stéphanie Villers.

The possibilities of government

Clearly, this type of price increase is felt much more on the household wallet, because it means that once the bills are paid there is less money left at the end of the month (when there is some). Without going so far as to necessarily imagine a reissue of the “yellow vests”, the government still wants to avoid arousing this type of discontent among the French and French women just over six months before the presidential election. But what can he do?

Stéphanie Villers sees two main means of action: “Either the government inflates aid from the energy check, by broadening the base of beneficiaries or by increasing the check… Or both. Either he decides, as in Spain, to lower fuel taxes. The risk, in the latter case, is to give free rein to an increase in the margins of producers and distributors of energy, in this case of fuel. The economist interviewed by 20 Minutes would therefore go more towards an option that gives money directly to households. “It is possible since with the increase in prices, VAT receipts also increase. “

The very complex question of purchasing power

More broadly, alongside identity or security issues, the purchasing power issue of the French has made a small place in the political agenda. And that is not necessarily good news for an outgoing government. “Seeing this subject come back, that means that after five years, the situation has not necessarily improved,” notes Stéphanie Villers. And then the political will is not always enough to settle the question: “Purchasing power is very complex in a country with so many economic disparities, analyzes Virginie Martin. Living with the salary of a teacher at the start of his career in Paris has nothing to do with living with the salary of a teacher at the start of his career in the suburbs of Clermont-Ferrand. Raising the minimum wage, for example, is very important, but it will not be felt the same way everywhere. “

According to a recent OpinionWay survey, 56% of French people polled believe that their purchasing power has rather decreased since the start of Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term. An indisputable alarm signal for the government already in the countryside, which counter-attacked: “Since 2017, the French have earned between 800 and 4,600 euros per year and per household”, Jean-Baptiste Djebbari declared a few days ago. on RMC and BFMTV. Only, as when INSEE explains that purchasing power is currently increasing, it is an average. And even if the housing tax has been abolished for a good part of the population, taxes have fallen proportionally more for the richest.

The slippery slope of the end of the pandemic

“It all depends on who the government is addressing by saying that, judge Stéphanie Villers. Because overall, there is still 8% unemployment or 3 million people without work. There are also 600,000 people still on short-time work and who have no assurance of getting back to work afterwards. The question of purchasing power, slippery for an outgoing government as we have understood, is therefore perhaps even more so in this exit (in any case, our fingers crossed) from the pandemic.

“Even if the government played the role of airbag in terms of purchasing power during the period of the pandemic, there is still a feeling of having lost financially, believes Virginie Martin. Whether it’s real, whether it’s been cushioned by the ‘whatever it takes’ or whether it’s just a feeling. Even those who have not suffered feel a potential precariousness. “To that, the statistics given will do nothing, but the government still has a trump card up its sleeve: leeway offered by the European Union.

“The stability pact was suspended until the end of 2022. Brussels will therefore not come to look in the draft budget for 2022, and that is blessed bread for a government in the election campaign,” said Stéphanie Villers. The exceptional energy check announced on September 16, among others, comes from there. But all of these measures will not be enough if the surge in energy prices is more sustainable than expected and, above all, they will come to an end. The question is when: before or after the election?