Favorite of polls on the right but unloved by activists, the Xavier Bertrand paradox

It was last June, at the Republican HQ, the evening of the results of the regional elections. On the TV screen appears Xavier Bertrand, just re-elected in Hauts-de-France, who calls for a rally. “He slams LR’s door and comes back four years later saying: I need you. It’s a bit easy… ”, annoys Nicole, a long-time insert.

Like her, many activists accuse the former minister of Nicolas Sarkozy of having left the ship in December 2017. While he now wishes to obtain the support of his political family, Xavier Bertrand seems to suffer from the image of the “Traitor”, which persists among part of the militant base.

“He has turned his back on his former political family”

At the beginning of September, his name was even copiously booed during the political re-entry of the Young Republicans at the Parc Floral in Paris. “In December 2017, everyone voted for Laurent Wauquiez [
élu président de LR à 74,64%], and the next day, Xavier Bertrand announces to the news that he gets off by criticizing him. He has turned his back on his former political family, ”blows a party executive. “He left because of a strategic line: that of Laurent Wauquiez. And also on the speech which said neither Macron nor Le Pen. But this line remains the ultra majority in the militant apparatus. It is up to him to explain his contradictions, ”adds a close friend of Vendée senator Bruno Retailleau.

This is the Bertrand paradox. The candidate is in the lead (on the right) in the polls at the national level, but it is not at all certain to win in a vote of the simple militants, gathered in Congress on December 4. In an internal consultation, launched by the deputy Julien Aubert in September on a basis of about 8,000 members, it is even the former European commissioner Michel Barnier who comes out of the hat. The questionnaire does not of course have the value of an official poll, but reveals the reservations of the militant base.

To participate in the Congress or not?

So Xavier Bertrand remains ambiguous about his intentions. After suggesting that he could participate in the Congress, the president of Hauts-de-France changed his tone. Yes at a Congress, and as soon as possible, but on the condition that only one name is put to the vote. His, of course. “We do not want a disguised primary, which shows divisions. The Congress must make it possible to unite around a candidacy that can win the right and the center. This is the case of Xavier Bertrand, who killed the match in the polls, ”pleads Valérie Debord, LR vice-president of the Grand-Est region and spokesperson for the candidate. “His departure in 2017 may have left traces, but the activists especially want to win the presidential election. The Congress is not made to elect a party leader, but to designate the best candidate, and all the polls show that Bertrand is the favorite, ”agrees Pierre-Henri Dumont, LR deputy for Pas-de-Calais.

Of course, its competitors, Valérie Pécresse and Michel Barnier in the lead, do not hear it that way. Why desist two months from a ballot that they hope to win? Decidedly, the right does not succeed. After getting rid of the open primary, she finds herself back at the starting point, facing the risk of a double candidacy. In the Bertrand camp, a certain pessimism begins to emerge: “It is like two trains which rush one on the other without one being able to do anything to prevent it”.