According to a “secret” LR poll, the RN will move closer to a majority in the Assembly in the event of early legislative elections.

Important progress for a party considered to be outside the Republican arc. According to a survey carried out “secretly” by the “Republicans” at the end of 2023, the National Rally could gain a majority in the National Assembly in the event of early legislative elections, according to Obs information published this Friday and confirmed in the Parisian.

The survey was conducted by Ipsos from December 8 to 13, 2023, with a sample size of 4,000 people.

Its purpose was to assess the consequences of possible early legislative elections in the event of government censorship leading to the dissolution of the National Assembly. This order then fit into a very specific context: a heated vote on immigration legislation that established a “balance of power” between the majority and Eric Ciotti’s camp.

Fewer seats for the left and the majority

This study estimates that elected National Rally representatives could win between 243 and 305 seats, up from 89 currently. Thus, in certain cases, a far-right party could gain a majority in the chamber of 289 seats.

Mechanically, on the side of the presidential majority, the score is decreasing: the Macronist camp, according to the poll, will receive from 117 to 165 seats compared to the 246 deputies elected in 2022.

Nupes, which won 131 seats in the last elections, will only get between 55 and 79 seats. On the right, Republicans will have 44 to 60 elected officials, down from 62 seats won in 2022.

According to Obs, Eric Ciotti’s entourage assures that this poll confirmed an “encouraging stabilization” of his party’s “shows”. The latter also points to “the collapse of the majority, the progress of the PH, reinforced by government inaction and the disappearance of the Nupes.”

In response to questions from BFMTV, RN, for its part, seems to be treating this survey with caution. “We know very well that there will be no dissolution,” a close friend of Marine Le Pen told the channel.