Who is leading the polls at the start of the year?

The French presidential election will take place this year on Sunday April 10 for the first round and Sunday April 24 for the second. Four months before the elections, the outcome is more than uncertain for the main declared and potential candidates. This month we have compiled for you the latest results from the beginning of January from the institutes Ifop, OpinionWay and Ipsos. It is on the basis of these opinion surveys that we present the graphs below which provide an approximate view of the differences between the candidates.

Voting intentions in the first round of the presidential election

At the beginning of January, Christiane Taubira made her entry into the institutes’ surveys Ifop and Ipsos after her declaration of a possible candidacy on the left, conditioned by the result of the popular primary in which she should take part. As of January 10, Ifop thus allocates up to 3.5% of voting intentions whileIpsos credits it with 3% on January 6. According to the statements ofIfop, Anne Hidalgo loses 1 point of intention to vote between December and January while Yannick Jadot loses up to 2 points of intention.

On the right, Valérie Pécresse and Marine Le Pen are still neck and neck, each gathering between 16% and 17% of voting intentions according to the different institutes. For his part, Eric Zemmour is unable to catch up and recover from the erosion of favorable opinions he experienced last December.

Finally, according to the last statement ofOpinion Way of January 11, President candidate Emmanuel Macron would remain largely in the lead with 25% of voting intentions.

Second round hypothesis: Emmanuel Macron vs Marine Le Pen

If we retain the hypothesis of a second round between the outgoing president and the candidate of the National Rally, the voting intentions remain fairly stable according to the various polling institutes. At the start of the week, Opinion Way attributes 44% of the voting intentions to Marine Le Pen. This figure drops to 42% according to Ifop.

Second round hypothesis: Emmanuel Macron vs Valérie Pécresse

The gap between the president and the Republican candidate has widened a bit in recent weeks, compared to her momentum last month, when she was nominated.

Thus, according to the institute Ifop, Voting intentions, which tilted to 51% in favor of Emmanuel Macron in mid-December, now reach 54% this week. On the other hand, for Opinion Way, no change to be noted between the two months.

Second round hypothesis: Emmanuel Macron vs Eric Zemmour

Status quo for this hypothesis according to Ifop which is the only one of the three institutes cited here to have shared such a hypothesis on January 6. This latest poll gives Emmanuel Macron the largely winner, credited with 63% of the voting intentions.

To learn more about the polls featured here, check out our sources below: