How could Peru play Uruguay in the Centennial?

Is it the most important game of the date? Yes. They face fourth against fifth in the table and whoever wins will practically ensure their classification to qatar. Is it the most difficult game for the peruvian national team? Yes. It is played in Montevideo, in a legendary setting and against a team that has qualified for the last three World Cups, tournaments in which they always advanced to the second phase.

10 days left for the match Uruguay vs. Peru by the date 17 of the Qatar 2022 Qualifying, but in this world where time seems to pass faster and faster, it’s the same as nothing. And anxiety increases rapidly. We get goosebumps when Gareca speaks and gives the squad list, we search like crazy on google if Uruguay has any casualties and we even go to the bookmakers to see what the prediction experts say. Do we win or lose?

Taking into account what was seen in the last matches of both, as well as the numbers and statistics that they left, in this note we make an analysis of how the match of March 24 could take place, we comment on the eleven and the strategy that should be proposed to Peruvian team and we do a bit of futurology: What happens if we lose, win or tie and in what position would we be according to each scenario?

Uruguay, its system and how to play it

Uruguay is a practical team. In his last home game against Venezuela, he did not dominate possession of the ball and thrashed 4-1. Diego Alonso, coach of the Charrúa team, does not want his team to have the ball any longer, but pass it as quickly as possible from area to area. With two well-planned lines of four and two strikers who know how to move around the attacking front like Suárez and Cavani, the Charrúa team plays like this: fast transitions, constant changes of sides with long passes, overflows and crosses on the wingsa lot of stopped ball and winning the divided balls.

The game is going to be different from what was seen against Colombia in Barranquilla, because the Charrúa team possibly will not have more the ball than the white and red. If things go like this, Peru will have time – but not necessarily space – to develop their game. And that does not guarantee that we will win the game.

For this, three things must be given: 1) Attacking men have to be inspired enough to break the Uruguayan defense. We are going to need a lot of walls, constant mobility, and the magic of Cueva and company. 2) Precision on the steering wheel. A loss in the middle will most likely trigger a shot by Uruguay, which with Pellistri and De Arrascaeta goes on the attack quickly. 3) The Peruvian defense cannot give away even an inch, much less make mistakes when the locals are in an attacking position. The concentration to not lose sight of the forwards (who move a lot) and the ability to win one-on-one and make good closures will be key to not conceding so many.

Peru, which plays with a clear 4-3-2-1 or 4-5-1, has to prevent the match from being played the way Uruguay wants. And the first minutes are going to be key because the Charrúas are going to go in search of 1-0 and then give up a little space and come out on a counterattack. The team is going to need the best Tapia, who is very good when he gets in between the defenders as a third centre-back, a lot of help on the wings and attention with the lines that can break the central frills, which can be: Bentancur, Valverde or Vecino. All tall, fast, powerful midfielders who play and score. They are very hard.

Christofer Gonzales, to the starting eleven

Only six dates of the 2022 Opening Tournament have been played, but he is already one of the best players in the championship. It is clear that Cristofer Gonzales is on another level and he shows it every weekend with Sporting Cristal. The most logical thing is that he starts against Uruguay together with Tapia and Yotún in the middle. Peña is playing again with Malmö but he still has a long way to go to be the player who won the starting spot at the time.

What does Christofer offer to the selection? Gonzales has many qualities to highlight. He is a footballer with a great capacity for association, who does not abuse dribbling and individual plays, but who at the same time can do a lot of damage with them. He knows how to play in short spaces, from behind and with the goal in front.

Looking at the game against Uruguay, his ability not to lose the ball easily and to open the field with crosses or long shots to the wings will be important for the Peruvian attackers to find spaces to apply speed. His dynamics to move from area to area without problems, his order to go back and do the relays, could also be fundamental in the game.

‘Canchita’ has a goal. Whether stepping into the area and making good definitions, or with shots from outside the distance. If there is something he has lacked to do in the national team, it is that, to score a goal in an official match.

From there, the rest of the team comes out of memory. Gallese in the bow; Advíncula, Ramos, Callens and Trauco in defense; Tapia, Yotún and Gonzales in the middle; Carrillo, Cueva and Lapadula occupying attack positions.

time to do the math

Everything is so even that it is inevitable to look at the standings, the upcoming games and think about what would happen if Peru wins, draws or loses. And what are the best or worst scenarios, taking into account, in addition, the results of the other meetings.

Let’s go first to the most optimistic scenario. Peru beats Uruguay and in the other games the most logical results are given: Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador and Argentina win. If this happens, the Peruvian team would be fourth and secure at least fifth place. Since, with 24 points and only one date to play, neither Colombia nor Chile can pass it in the table. Only Uruguay could steal fourth place.

If we win, the only way not to secure fifth place is for Chile to beat Brazil at the Maracana Stadium. It seems impossible, but you never know.

The second scenario is to get a tie. If Peru adds a point and the logical results occur again, it would maintain fifth place and the team would depend on itself to qualify. But, in case of losing to Paraguay, Colombia and Chile can overtake us in the table. Now, if Chile beats Brazil, Peru -with the tie with Uruguay- would be sixth.

Obviously, the worst scenario is defeat. But even with an adverse result, the team could stay in fifth place and continue to depend on itself. The only way for that not to happen is for Chile to hit Rio de Janeiro.

In short, the selection reaches date 17 with good odds of relying on herself to get the long-awaited quota for Qatar 2022.