Cristal, Alianza Lima, Universitario, Melgar and which leading club has the most chances of winning the Clausura

The Closing Tournament League 1 2022 It’s pretty close to completion. And in the absence of only four dates for it to reach its end, up to six clubs are still fighting to be crowned. Nothing is said yet. For this reason, in this note we shuffle the possibilities of the favorites to conquer the second part of the national championship.

The recent goalless draw between University and Sporting Cristal and the victory of Alianza Lima over Municipal (4-1) It has caused everything to be much more close and variable at the top of the table. Atlético Grau, Melgar, Alianza Lima and César Vallejo They have been attentive to this duel, since their aspirations also depend on the results obtained by their direct rivals. And so it will continue to be in the coming weeks.

Without further ado, we take a look at each team’s winning chances in the short run to the end of the season. Emotion and anxiety, of course, are on the surface.

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CRYSTAL SPORTS

Although he did not win, he still added a point. Sporting Cristal is consolidated in the leadership of the Closing Tournament and the accumulated one. Rimenses reached 32 points in the contest and, at least, have three units ahead of their closest rival (Melgar). At this point, Roberto Mosquera’s team is the great favorite to win the championship, but it still has several clubs on the prowl. Be that as it may, he depends on himself and that is what is worth now.

Now four decisive games are coming for the light blue team: they will receive Atlético Grau and Carlos Mannucci; and will visit Sport Boys and Alianza Atlético. Only one will do it in Sullana, although it is not a terrain that implies the height factor.

It must be taken into account, first of all, that Sporting Cristal is invincible at home. In all this season they have not lost any game at home (11 wins and 5 draws) and intends to continue his undefeated streak. In that sense, beating Mannucci should not mean much difficulty, but against Atlético Grau the task will be a little more complicated, since it is a direct rival.

Meanwhile, as a visitor, Rimenses also appear with the best numbers. In fact, they have not lost in any of their seven games played away from home in the Clausura (5 wins and 2 draws). In the same way, he has to face two teams that are strong at home, such as Boys and Alianza Atlético, so he will have to redouble efforts to keep the victory against both.

In any case, Sporting Cristal’s chances of winning the Clausura are higher than those of the others. Mosquera’s remaining team path is accessible and his stats fully support him. If the feat is accomplished, it is most likely that he will qualify directly for the final against Melgar -Apertura champion and 2nd in the accumulated-, since his leadership in the accumulated would give him that great chance.

MELGAR

Of great campaign, although it lost important points in the last dates. With the pending matches he had, Melgar was able to calmly be on top as he did in the Apertura, but he missed his chance. Today, he is in third place with 29 points and still hopes to repeat the feat in the Clausura.

But he has it hard. The ‘Domino’ will have to visit two direct rivals: Universitario and Atlético Grau. Playing away from home, the team from Arequipa has not done so well or badly in this second part of the year (2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). And, to their bad luck, their two remaining contenders have only lost once at home in this tournament. The mission of winning those two clashes can become impossible.

Now, in Arequipa it is time to receive Sport Boys and Alianza Atlético, two teams that suffer a lot when visiting. The Chalaco team has not won any time away from home and Sullana’s side only once in the Clausura. Also, the red and black team is the one that has added the most points as a local this season (45 points)product of 15 wins and only one loss, so it must stay on the same line.

The scenario is that. Those led by Pablo Lavallén are hopeful, but they know very well that they have to dedicate a lot of effort in their last four games to achieve a perfect score and hope that Sporting Cristal stumbles at least once in this final stretch.

However, Melgar’s other path goes through the accumulated table. With 70 points, it is 8 units ahead of Alianza Lima. Having won the Torneo Apertura gives him the chance to reach the final directly, remaining among those two first places in the accumulated table.

ACADEMIC

It was necessary to beat Sporting Cristal. The tie has not served him much. Now he remains with four points less than the leader and with one more game. On the penultimate date, the ‘U’ has to rest and will have to keep an eye on what their direct rivals do in their respective matches. That can be very detrimental to your goals.

Meanwhile, in the Monumental, a scenario where he has only lost twice throughout the season, the ‘U’ must still receive two of the four rivals that have scored the most points as visitors in this 2022: Sport Huancayo (26 pts) and Melgar (25 pts).

And on the visit, they only need to measure themselves against UTC, a club that in the Clausura has only lost once at home. In this context, Universitario has a very complicated panorama, because it has less margin of error (only nine points in dispute) and because its next contenders are not easy to beat. Similarly, the creams do not lose hope.

LIME ALLIANCE

He wasted valuable points on key dates and that deprived him of being the Clausura leader. But their fight remains intact until the end. This Monday they beat Municipal 1-0 and with that they came within two points of the Clausura leader. Fortunately for the Blue and Whites, in their remaining calendar there is no longer any direct rival to face each other, although they cannot be trusted either.

In Matute, a scenario in which he has only fallen twice this 2022, he will have to receive Binacional and ADT, two rivals that together only add six points out of a possible 45 as a visitor in the Clausura. Definitely, the numbers fully support Alianza Lima to keep the six points in these two games.

On the visit, the intimate draw will have to be measured against Cienciano and Ayacucho FC, two teams that actually do not have such positive numbers playing at home. However, height can be a factor influencing the outcome, as it has always been in a negative way for Victorians.

Yes indeed, Alianza Lima is the third team with the most points added away from home (25 pts.) and with this statistic they are motivated to face the people from Cusco, who have a much more regular and positive balance than the people from Ayacucha as locals in the Clausura (3 wins, 3 draws and one loss). In this sense, the most important match of the “intimates” on their agenda will be in Cusco against “Papá”.

Without a doubt, the team led by ‘Chicho’ Salas today still aspires to the title, even more so with the draw between Cristal and ‘U’. His victory over Municipal has increased his chances of achieving the feat. But, like everyone else, he will have to be attentive -inevitably- to what happens with the other protagonists of the top, especially with the team from Rima, the only one that surpasses him in the table.

CESAR VALLEJO

He’s having a pretty good time. They have won four of their last five matches and he wants to continue down that same path in the last four dates. In fact, the fixture of the poet painting looks more accessible than the others.

José Guillermo del Solar’s team still needs to receive Carlos Stein and Municipal, two clubs committed to the last places that usually add very little as visitors. Also, In the 16 home games he has played in 2022, Vallejo has barely lost twice (he won 12 and drew 2). He has the stats in his favor.

On the visit, he has to face San Martín and Binacional, two other teams that are not having a good time in the Clausura. The holy team also has more losses (8) than wins (5) playing at home this season. However, against the ‘Powerful of the South’ it will be difficult, since this year they have only lost two games at home (12 wins and two draws).

With four points less than the leader and a practically simple fixture, César Vallejo still has a chance of reaching the top. Of course, the Trujillo team will have to maintain their positive streak and wait for the results of the other rivals to end up benefiting them.

ATHLETIC GRAU

It became the big surprise of the Closing, breaking into the first places unexpectedly. He even came to lead the table, but gradually deflated. Recently, they fell 4-1 to Alianza Atlético and wasted their big chance to catch up with Sporting Cristal in the table.

His chances are now minimal, since he has one more game (he must rest on the last date) just like the ‘U’. But the worst thing is that he has to visit none other than Sporting Cristal and receive Melgar, very tough contenders. The only relatively accessible duel that Grau has left is at home against Mannucci.

So, at most the northern team can add nine points if things go well for them. But his remaining schedule doesn’t help him much in that regard. And it will also depend a lot on other results in the following weeks.