The autonomous car, a technological revolution that continues to be delayed: what do the experts think?

He autonomous vehicleannounced as the next technological revolution, is long overdue due to the caution of equipment manufacturers and suppliers to advance on this expensive and complex path.

“Five years ago, we thought that in 2025 we would have quite significant autonomy in many vehicles. This is not the case,” confirms Christophe Aufrère, technical director of the French equipment supplier Forvia.

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The reasons are multiple: a reduced financial capacity due to the covid-19 crisis, the investment priority in electrification and the complexity of these systems, whose ultimate objective is to develop a vehicle capable of circulating without human intervention in all conditions.

Now “we are rather saying that this will arrive between now and 2030,” explains Aufrère to AFP.

In Munich (Germany), which is hosting the IAA motor show until the weekend, a survey is being carried out among the public: “Would you use an autonomous taxi between the central station and the Oktoberfest?”

The vote, carried out with colored balls, gives a large majority to yes.

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But the public will hardly find one of these futuristic vehicles among the models on display.

Autonomous, but not that much

The German manufacturer Mercedes proposes one of the rare models approved for level 3 autonomous driving according to current international regulations.

This level authorizes the user to entrust driving to the vehicle, equipped with multiple sensors, radars and cameras, in very specific situations: on a highway at less than 60 km/h, for example, in a traffic jam.

Munich brought together the main car manufacturers during the German Motor Show. (Photo: AFP)

In addition, the driver must be available to take control of the vehicle if the computer requests it.

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This system is available as an option on the luxury S-Class model, with a six-figure price tag.

A Honda model of the same level received validation from Japanese authorities in 2021.

And the American Ford went a little further this summer by launching in the United Kingdom a vehicle capable of driving autonomously at high speed on a highway.

But the rest of the models available in the show are located at level 2 of autonomy, with improved driving assistance systems that require a driver to be alert at all times.

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This is Tesla’s “autopilot” function, which is still far from the final goal, level 5, which Elon Musk hopes to have ready this year although the firm keeps postponing it.

Uneven deployment

China and the United States are ahead of Europe.

In San Francisco, the vehicles of Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet (Google’s parent company), and Cruise, of General Motors, reach level 4 of autonomy: they can circulate without human intervention but only under certain conditions and within a defined perimeter, like an urban center.

In China, local internet giant Baidu and startup Pony.ai obtained authorization to operate autonomous taxis in November 2021.

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The reason for this uneven deployment “is not regulation, nor technology, but capital,” which is easier to raise in the United States than in Europe, considers Christophe Périllat, CEO of French equipment supplier Valeo.

In Europe, the industry does not want to take any risks and “makes sure that it has gone far enough in testing before launching a technology, while in the United States the decision is sometimes to go quite fast in experimentation”, summarizes Matthieu Noel, from the consulting firm Roland Berger.

Even so, “the autonomous vehicle progresses every year,” Périllat assures AFP from the Munich motor show.

“We are going to see significant advances in autonomous driving in a few years,” agrees Professor Lutz Eckstein, from the RWTH University of Aachen (Germany).

The so-called level 2+ systems, with very advanced assistance that also monitor the driver’s state of attention and fatigue, must be multiplied, says this expert, who adds that “the number and performance of level 3 systems will also increase.”

Mercedes has already set its next goal: “By the end of the decade, we want to achieve the possibility of driving at 130 km/h on a highway.”

Source: Elcomercio