What is known about Russia’s massive military deployment on the border with Ukraine

Russia affirms since Tuesday that it is withdrawing part of its troops deployed on the border with Ukraine. But Western countries believe that this is not the case and are cautious.

These are some facts about the Russian military deployment on the border with Ukrainewhich has generated for weeks a great crisis between Russia and Western countries and has multiplied the fear of a war in Eastern Europe.

How many and where are they found?

Moscow had announced in December that it would carry out land, air and sea military maneuvers near Ukrainian territory.

Nowadays Russia has considerable forces on its own territory and also in Belaruson the annexed peninsula of crimea and in the Black Sea, that is, on the eastern, northern and southern borders with Ukraine. Moscow never provided figures for its deployed troops.

The only data available are those estimated by Western countries, based mainly on satellite images. In recent days they calculate between “more than 100,000” soldiers, according to the NATOand “more than 150,000″, according to US President Joe Biden.

Russia has also sent heavy material, such as tanks, missiles and anti-aircraft defense batteries.

But, unlike a similar deployment carried out during the spring (boreal) of 2021, Russia, always according to third parties, this time would have sent medical equipment and large reserves of fuel, essential elements to establish supply chains in case of invasion.

Most of the available images have been posted on social networks by eyewitnesses, who for weeks have filmed columns of tanks parked on the outskirts of border towns, and even trains loaded with military equipment crossing Russia from east to west.

True or false retreat?

In the last three days, Moscow has repeatedly announced the return to their bases of different deployed units.

This Thursday, the Ministry of Defense released images of military trucks stowed on a train that was leaving crimea. He also announced the departure of an unknown number of armored vehicles stationed in the Russian West.

Belarus, an ally of Russia, stated that the Russian troops deployed in the framework of these maneuvers, numerous but not quantified, will leave the country at the end of the exercises, on February 20.

But such announcements are refuted by Westerners.

“Now we know it’s fake”an unnamed senior White House official said Wednesday night, accusing Moscow of deploying “up to 7,000” extra troops near Ukraine.

For his part, the Ukrainian president, Volodimir Zelensky, claims to have seen only “small rotations.”

What is necessary for a de-escalation?

A Russian military expert, Pavel Felgenhauer, does not rule out that “these announcements of withdrawal of Russian troops are intended (…) to confuse the NATO and to the United States and thus create a strategic surprise effect”, but considers a “very slow” de-escalation process more likely.

For him, the passage from a phase of “hypercombatant preparation to a scenario with a more peaceful profile would take more than a month.”

The West, led by the Americans, insists that a Russian invasion could take place soon.

Russia He denies any aggressive intention towards Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, which Vladimir Putin does not want to join NATO.

Moscow is striving for its military maneuvers to be seen as simply routine exercises. But the deployment around Ukraine of units normally stationed in the Russian Far East suggests he is planning an assault.

A return to barracks 5,000, 6,000 or 8,000 km from the theoretical front would be a reassuring sign.

Another sign of a de-escalation would be the reactivation of peace talks related to the conflict in eastern Ukraine. However, this week, the Russian Parliament (Duma) urged Putin to recognize the independence of the pro-Russian separatists who have been fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014, something disturbing for Westerners.

On Tuesday, Ukraine suffered a new cyberattack that particularly affected the headquarters of the Ministry of Defense and the local bank. Kiev has singled out Moscow, which denies any involvement.

Military experts estimate that a possible Russian military offensive could be preceded by a major digital sabotage.

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