Angry, frustrated and determined to escalate the war: this is how US intelligence sees Putin

More than two weeks into a war he hoped to dominate in two days, Vladimir Putin is projecting anger, frustration over military failures and willingness to cause even more violence and destruction in Ukraine, according to US intelligence assessment

In the last days, US officials have publicly said they are concerned that the Russian president will escalate the conflict to try to break Ukraine’s resistance. Russia still has overwhelming military advantages and can bombard the country for weeks to come. And while the rest of the world reacts to the horrific images of the war that began, Putin remains isolated of internal pressure by what CIA director William Burns called a “propaganda bubble.”

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Understanding Putin’s mindset, difficult as it may be to determine from afar, is critical for the West, which is providing more military aid to Ukraine and it also seeks to prevent Putin from directly confronting NATO countries or possibly reaching for the nuclear button. During two days of testimony before Congress last week, US intelligence officials openly expressed concern about what Putin might do. And those concerns are increasingly shaping discussions about what US lawmakers are willing to do for Ukraine.

For two decades, Putin has achieved total domination of Russia’s government and security services, ruling with a small inner circle and marginalizing dissent. He has long criticized the breakup of the Soviet Union, rejected Ukraine’s claims of sovereignty, and mused about ending nuclear war with the Russians as “martyrs.” Burns told lawmakers that he believed for “many years” in Putin a “combustible combination of grievance and ambition” was growing.

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Putin hoped to seize Kiev within two days, Burns said. Instead, his army has failed to take control of the major cities and has already lost several thousand soldiers. The West has imposed sanctions and other measures that have crippled the Russian economy and lowered the living standards of both oligarchs and ordinary citizens. Much of the foreign currency that Russia had hoarded as a bulwark against sanctions is now frozen in banks abroad.

Vladimir Putin waiting for the Belarusian Alexander Lukashenko, in Moscow. (Mikhail Klimentyev – Pool Sputnik Kremlin).

Burns is a former US ambassador to Moscow who has met with Putin many times. In response to a question about the Russian president’s state of mind, he told lawmakers that he didn’t think Putin was crazy. “I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now”said. “It is likely to double down and try to crush the Ukrainian army without taking civilian casualties into account.”

Recent unsubstantiated claims by Russia that the United States is helping Ukraine develop chemical or biological weapons suggest that Putin himself may be poised to deploy such weapons in a “false flag” operation, Burns said.

There is no apparent way to end the war. It is almost inconceivable that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has earned worldwide admiration for leading his country’s resistance, would suddenly recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea or support granting new autonomy to the parties from eastern Ukraine friends of Russia. And even if he captures Kiev and deposes Zelensky, Putin would have to account for a Western-backed insurgency in a country of more than 40 million.

“It has no sustainable political end in the face of what will continue to be fierce resistance from the Ukrainians,” Burns said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin at a homeland ceremony in Moscow on Feb. 23, 2022. (Alexei Nikolsky, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Avril Haines, director of national intelligence for President Joe Biden, said that Putin ‘perceives this as a war he cannot afford to lose’. “But what you might be willing to accept as a win may change over time given the significant costs it incurs,” he added.

Intelligence analysts believe that Putin’s recent raising of Russia’s nuclear alert level was “likely intended to dissuade the West from providing additional support to Ukraine,” he said.

White House concern over escalation has at times frustrated both Democrats and Republicans. After initially signaling its support, the Biden administration has in recent days refused to support a Polish plan to donate Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine that would have required the United States to participate in the transfer. The administration previously delayed sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and would not send Stinger air defense missiles to Ukraine before changing course.

Questioned Thursday, Haines said Putin could see the transfer of the plane as a more important matter than the anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons already being sent to Ukraine. Haines did not disclose whether the United States had intelligence to back up that finding.

A woman walks past huge banners bearing images of Russian President Vladimir Putin reading “Russia does not start wars, it ends them” and “We will aim for the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine” in the city center of Simferopol, Crimea, on March 4, 2022. (STRINGER / AFP).

Meanwhile, as the violence worsens and more Russians are killed, the West is also watching for any signs of holes forming in Putin’s “propaganda bubble.” An independent Russian political analyst, Kirill Rogov, posted on his Telegram account that the war is “lost” and an “epic failure.”

“One mistake was the notion that the West was unwilling to resist aggression, that it was lethargic, greedy and divided,” Rogov wrote. “The idea that the Russian economy is self-sufficient and secure was also a mistake. Another mistake was the idea of ​​the quality of the Russian army. And the main mistake was the idea that Ukraine is a failed state and Ukrainians are not a nation.

“Four mistakes when making a decision is a lot”said.

Before the invasion, polls conducted by the Levada Center, Russia’s leading independent opinion research firm, found that 60% of those surveyed saw the US and NATO as the “initiators” of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. . Only 3% answered Russia. Voting was in January and February, and the Levada Center has not released any new polls since the war began.

By Nomaan Merchant

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Source: Elcomercio