Why has Europe kept buying weapons in the last 5 years while the rest of the world stopped?

Europe It has been the region that has reinforced its military arsenal the most during the last five years, according to the latest report prepared by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

This trend, moreover, goes against the trend seen on a global scale, where purchases fell between 2017 and 2021 by 4.6% compared to the previous five years.

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And everything indicates that this is just beginning in the Old Continent. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused that, in recent days, countries such as Germany, Denmark or Sweden have announced unprecedented war plans.

Berlin is about to approve its new military budget, which will go from US$52 billion to US$56 billion. In addition, it will have a fund of US$110,000 million to modernize its army in the coming years and has the goal of eventually allocating at least 2% of its GDP in defense each year. Germany is the fourth global economy and in 2021 it registered a GDP greater than US$4 billion.

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Both Copenhagen and Stockholm have also committed to following the 2% of GDP plan proposed by NATO.

“Europe is the new hot spot”, summarized Siemon Wezeman, co-author of the report and SIPRI researcher, when presenting the report.

Reasons for the increase

Although it has been published in the midst of the Russian-Ukrainian war, it should be noted that the SIPRI report reflects data prior to the military offensive. However, it highlights that the biggest catalyst for arms purchases in Europe has been the growing tension between Russia and its continental neighbors after the annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014.

“Although that is the key factor, the security situation in the Middle East and North Africa, including the military activities of European states, contributed to further incentivize the increase. The recovery of the economies after the financial crisis of 2008 also facilitated it.”, explains Wezeman in dialogue with Trade.

Regarding the main acquisitions, the researcher highlights the purchase of combat aircraft and missiles. “However, European states are investing in all categories of weapons. Several major contracts for submarines and frigates are being implemented, and several states have ordered advanced air and missile defense systems. The demand for tanks also saw a marked increase”, he warns.

This leads us to wonder if Europe was already preparing for war long before Moscow launched its military offensive.

“No, he wasn’t preparing for that.”, considers Wezeman. “Western and Central Europe strengthened their armed forces by importing weapons in order to deter Russia from military aggression.”.

future scenario

Faced with the obvious failure of their dissuasive tactics, both the European Union and NATO, the UN and the US decided to take a new path. In recent weeks, sanctions against Russian industry and elite have been piling up, one after another. But what will be the effect of those punishments on the world’s second-largest arms dealer?

“The real effects in general and in monetary terms are still difficult to assess”, says the researcher. “The US will increase pressure on states to stop buying Russian weapons, using both ‘sticks’ – like the sanctions Turkey has experienced – and ‘carrots’, offering alternatives. Just this week, the US offered Egypt fighter jets as an option to similar ones it would receive from Russia. At the same time, sanctions on Russian banks will make it more difficult to pay for such equipment, and sanctions on air transport will create obstacles to the delivery of weapons and spare parts. Finally, some states may side with Ukraine and thus no longer consider arms trade with Russia”.

Wezeman stresses that the effects of both the war and the acquisition of weapons will only be visible in the medium term. “The real effect on deliveries will be seen within a few years, as the selection, ordering, production and delivery process for major weapons typically takes 2-10 years or even longer.”.

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Source: Elcomercio

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