Russia’s political elite still loyal to Vladimir Putin

The displayed unit has no flaws. Despite global outrage and unprecedented sanctions against his country, President Vladimir Putin can count, for the moment, on the support of the Russian political elite, obsessed with “its own survival”.

Russian artists and major media figures have denounced the Russian invasion of Ukraine and even some oligarchs have voiced veiled criticism. But after nearly a month of war, there is no apparent protest within Vladimir Putin’s inner circle or among the country’s political heavyweights.

“There is a real consensus”

“There has been no sign of a split” within the Russian ruling class, says Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R. Politik, a bimonthly newsletter analyzing Russian politics. “There is a real consensus, notwithstanding possibly with differences in strategies”, she underlines. She points out the difference between having reservations about the invasion and being ready to act.

“People are in shock and many think it’s a mistake. But no one is able to act. Everyone is focused on their own survival,” adds Tatiana Stanovaya. Despite the devastating impact of the sanctions on the Russian economy, there is no sign yet that this will translate into political change in Russia, according to several Western diplomatic sources.

The opposition has disappeared

According to Tatiana Stanovaya, the main criticism of the invasion of Ukraine inside Russia comes from “peripheral” forces from the nationalist far right who believe that the invasion is not progressing far enough quickly.

Russian state television continues to relay the official discourse: Russia is carrying out a “special military operation”, a heroic mission against Western invasion. The liberal opposition has disappeared, the parties represented in Parliament almost always follow the Kremlin line on all subjects and the opponent Alexeï Navalny, sworn enemy of the Kremlin, is in prison.

“Ultra-loyalist” or “frightened” relatives

“It’s not really a surprise that we haven’t seen a radical split within the ruling elite,” said Ben Noble, associate professor at University College London. “Vladimir Putin has maintained a system in which he is surrounded by ultra-loyalists who share his opinion on Westerners wanting to destroy Russia or by others who are too scared to express any protest,” he adds.

On February 21, three days before launching the invasion, Putin convened a Security Council of the ruling political class to seek their advice on how to proceed on Russia’s recognition of the independence of pro-Russian separatists from Ukraine and ordered its army to enter these territories.

Single queue support

The event was broadcast on Russian television, an unusual practice. One after another, marching to a lectern, in a theatrical show of unity, 12 men and one woman expressed their support for this recognition, now seen as a harbinger of war. There was not the slightest murmur of protest among those who participated in this Security Council, and neither from lower-ranking officers.

The only figure from the first circle, current and past, to demonstrate his opposition is a former Kremlin adviser and former deputy prime minister (between 2012 and 2018), Arkadi Dvorkovitch, who resigned from the management of a foundation economic public after having criticized the offensive in Ukraine in an interview with the American media Mother Jones.

Silence even at the Russian Central Bank

Arkadi Dvorkovitch, 49, is also the current president of the International Chess Federation (FIDE), a sport in which Russia retains significant influence. But from other ex-Kremlin personalities – like ex-finance minister Alexei Kudrin who is now head of Russia’s Court of Accounts – there has been total silence.

The fate of the head of the Russian Central Bank, the economist Elvira Nabioullina, has also been scrutinized. She had been photographed looking crestfallen at a meeting in the Kremlin and had posted an enigmatic video in which she acknowledged that the Russian economy was in an “extreme” situation, adding: “we all wish that hadn’t happened”. But Vladimir Putin asked parliament this week to reinstate her, apparently debunking rumors that she may resign in protest against the war.

The impossible “frontal” criticism of Putin

Rumors have also surrounded the oligarchs who stand to lose hugely from this invasion, such as Oleg Deripaska and Mikhail Fridman, both of whom made cautious comments promoting peace.

Ben Noble points out that many members of the Russian elite were shocked by the invasion because the vast majority “were not involved in the decision-making process” and believed that Putin was only trying to extract concessions from the West and not to trigger an invasion. “However, it is one thing to make calls for peace; it is quite another to criticize Putin head-on,” he concludes.