“Today we cannot say with certainty that there will not be a food crisis in the region”

Julio Berdegué, since 2017 deputy director general and regional representative for Latin America and the Caribbean FAO (the UN agency for Food and Agriculture), says that food security is experiencing a “perfect storm”: an economic slowdown, the pandemic, climate change and now the war between Ukraine and Russia. The conflict, warns Berdegué, will continue to increase the prices of basic inputs such as wheat, corn and fertilizers, “the benzine” of food production.

“The first thing is that we must keep the markets open, it is vital. Second, governments must be prevented from taking unilateral measures that aggravate uncertainty”, says the senior FAO official in that interview for the Grupo de Diarios de América (GDA), in which he highlights the importance of the region for the rest of the planet. “Latin America and the Caribbean is vital for the food security of the planet, not only for the region. If we take out Latin American production, this will have global ramifications.”, he comments.

—You have said that the pandemic was a “true atomic bomb in terms of hunger” for Latin America. Currently, what is the post-pandemic regional situation?

The pandemic was disastrous for food security and nutrition. We have 60 million people in conditions of hunger in Latin America and the Caribbean. These are numbers that one associates with countries at war, increases that had never been seen, and we had already been worsening since 2015 in the fight against hunger; in the first place, because the economy of the region slowed down; secondly, also due to the effects of the political crises in countries like Venezuela and the impacts of climate change. This combination had already been bringing us bad and the pandemic was a brutal blow.

In Latin America there is plenty of food. We are 650 million, and we produce enough for 1.3 billion people to feed themselves. One in six inhabitants of the planet and yet we are hungry, not for lack of food, but for lack of money in our pockets (…), which, in addition, makes people abandon the most nutritious foods, then, also we have an increase in overweight and obesity.

—What measures are urgent to curb climate change in the region?

What matters most to Latin America and also to the Caribbean, especially to the agricultural sector, is adaptation. We have to do our part in mitigation, that is, in reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. But Latin America only emits 8% of world emissions. So, of course we have a contribution to make, but our fundamental problem is adaptation to climate change. I also want to highlight two very important things in Latin America: deforestation and the emission of methane gas. Deforestation is largely associated with the expansion of the agricultural frontier, forests are burned or felled to plant crops or to produce livestock, and we have to stop that. Latin American agriculture and livestock have to be zero deforestation. And on the other hand, moving towards livestock farming that is much lower in methane gas emissions, which recarbonizes the soil, that is, many of the emissions from that livestock are captured in the soil and in the vegetation.

—The region is beginning to experience a severe crisis due to lack of water and droughts. How long in the long term will we register severe problems?

Already. When talking to farmers, they are going to say that already. They are already facing problems of not being able to produce the same as before (…). How severe? It is very difficult to define it. Climate change affects the lack of water, because the temperature rises, because there are droughts that are accompanied by floods, because pests and diseases also move. So there are many factors, this set of factors, depending on the place and the crops, can reduce production between 35 and 40% in this region in the next 15 to 20 years. This is very severe because the population increases over the years. So we have to produce much more in an environment that is much more aggressive.

—Regarding food security, what issues are the most important to resolve in the region?

Unfortunately we have a perfect storm because we still have the impact of the pandemic (…). There our call is very clear, governments have to maintain the social protection programs that were put in place during the pandemic and that cannot be completely withdrawn until this world of people has managed to recover at least the income levels that they had before.

Second, the inflation of food prices, which we have seen in recent months and is explained by international logistics problems, by the increase in energy costs that have a very direct impact on agriculture and now by the war in Ukraine.

Ukraine and Russia are two major producers of cereals, they produce 30% of global wheat exports, but we do not know if Ukraine is going to be able to harvest and Russia, which we assume is producing, faces sanctions and therefore it is not so easy for export. So in the short term we are already going to have a shock, and we have a more serious scenario if there is damage to the infrastructure of key ports for the departure of exports from these two countries in the Black Sea.

Furthermore, Russia is one of the world’s leading producers of fertilizers, and fertilizer is what gasoline does to a car. Without it, it is almost impossible to maintain production, and its price has skyrocketed.

Pandemic, Ukraine, and on top of that climate change, caused an extremely complex situation for food security. Today we cannot say with certainty that a food crisis situation cannot occur in the region.

—How will the crisis in Ukraine specifically affect the countries of Latin America?

The concrete consequence in Latin America is that the price of food is going to increase sharply, wheat and corn will continue to increase, and although, for example, Chile or Mexico do not buy wheat from Russia or the Ukraine, the international price has risen , then the great producers of wheat in this continent: Argentina, the United States, Canada, are still going to sell that wheat at the highest international price.

—In this context, which are the most vulnerable areas in the region in the face of the food crisis?

We have areas in Latin America and the Caribbean where there was already a situation, before this perfect, serious storm. Haiti is of course our main concern, half of the population lives in a very complicated condition of food insecurity and we have forgotten about Haiti, which needs the solidarity of Latin America and the Caribbean.

Second, in Central America there is a strip called the dry corridor, millions of people live there who are facing very severe drought situations and that largely explains those enormous migrations that we see towards the United States, because they are farmers who cannot continue living in their areas. So, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras are of great concern to us.

Venezuela certainly has a very complex situation from the point of view of food security and other countries like Colombia, due to the strong arrival of migrants from neighboring countries (…) that puts heavy pressure on the national situation.

—What practices should the region follow to guarantee the food security of its population in this scenario?

First, when there are these situations of great uncertainty, some countries tend to say ‘I am going to ban food exports to insure my population’, then everyone begins to take that measure and there is greater food scarcity in the world, less flow in supply chains and the problem gets worse.

So the first thing is that we have to keep the markets open, it is vital. Second, governments must be prevented from taking unilateral measures that aggravate uncertainty. Third, we are working with the governments of the world to try to improve transparency in market information, this is very important so that economic agents can assess the situation with the greatest amount of information, which helps a lot so that it does not go panic decisions motivated by uncertainty.

At the end of the month, the FAO brings together all the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean in Quito (Ecuador), and this is going to be a central topic of discussion, how the countries will collaborate with each other, because this is not resolved by any one country If only.

By: Eva Luna Gatica, El Mercurio / GDA