the ukrainian forces control the situation in the capital and the kyiv region, but believe that Russia will try to break the resistance again after regrouping in Belarusian territory, while continuing its offensive in the south and east of Ukraineespecially in Donbas.
“Several units were assigned to the Chernobyl area – in the region of Kyiv– for subsequent relocation to Belarus, with the aim of restoring combat capability”said this Sunday the General Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“It is possible that after the implementation of these measures, the regrouping and strengthening of forces, the occupiers will resume actions to blockade kyiv from the southwest direction”he added.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) agrees with this assessment: “The Russian Army continues to concentrate replacements and reinforcements in Belarus and Russia north of kyiv, to fight for positions on the outskirts of the capital and try to complete the encirclement and capture of Chernigov”he maintains.
In its latest analysis, the ISW states that “Russian activities around Kyiv show no change in the Russian high command’s prioritization of the fighting around the capital of Ukrainewhich continues to occupy the largest single concentration of Russian ground forces in Ukraine”.
THE NORTH FRONT DOES NOT REST
In the region of Kyiv in the last 24 hours there were more than 30 bombardments by Russian troops against urbanizations and social infrastructure, according to the Military Regional Administration.
Since the beginning of the Russian military offensive, destruction has been recorded in 34 of the 69 communities in the region, 49.2%. More than 500 objects were destroyed.
Chernigov in turn threatens to become a second Mariupola city symbol of the Ukrainian resistance, but also of the human tragedy due to the prolonged siege it has been suffering.
“Due to the destruction of critical infrastructure and active hostilities in the city of Chernigov, there is no supply of electricity, heating and water. The gas works only partially”according to the head of the Military Regional Administration, Vyacheslav Chaus.
The mayor of the city, Vladyslav Atroshenko, said the day before that “a city that is in pieces.”
FINAL OFFENSIVE IN THE DONBÁS?
Despite the announcement of Russia last Friday that he was going to focus on the release of the donbasthe ISW does not yet see any indication that this is the case.
“The Russians have not intended to redeploy forces since Kyiv or any other part of Ukraine to concentrate on the fight donbasand we’ve seen numerous indicators that they haven’t.”he indicated.
“The increasingly static nature of the fighting around Kyiv It reflects the inability of Russian forces more than any change in Russian goals or efforts at this time.” pointed.
British military intelligence today contradicted this analysis nonetheless.
The Ministry of Defense maintained that “Russian forces appear to be concentrating their efforts on trying to encircle Ukrainian forces that are directly confronting breakaway regions in the east of the country, advancing from the north Kharkiv and from the south from Mariupol”.
The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Brigadier General Kirill Budanov, agreed with London.
“After the failures near Kyiv and the impossibility of overthrowing the central government of Ukraine(Russian President Vladimir) Putin is already shifting his main operational directions to the south and east.”he pointed out, according to the UNIAN agency.
“There are reasons to believe that he is considering a “Korean” scenario for Ukraine. In fact, this is an attempt to create North Korea and South Korea in Ukraine. After all, (the Russian president) definitely can’t capture the whole country,” Budanov said.
In his opinion, the Kremlin continues to work on establishing a land corridor to the annexed Crimean peninsula from the donbasbut stressed that for now he runs into the “unbreakable” Mariúpol.
The ISW however believes that Russian forces are likely to gain control of the city, which belongs to the region of Donetsk.
The leader of the other pro-Russian separatist region, Luganskconsidered today the holding of a referendum on the accession of the territory to Russia, something that the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Oleg Nikolenko, considered illegal.
“The fake referendums in the occupied parts of Ukraine are null and void. No country in the world will ever recognize the forcible change of Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders,” he wrote in a tweet.
Among other things, Russia demands in vain Ukraine to recognize the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk at the negotiating table, which will seat the delegations of both countries again in person at the same table in the coming days. According to kyiv, the meeting will be held in Turkey.
The member of the Ukrainian delegation, David Arahamiya, announced today that Ukraine and Russia will hold a new round of negotiations, this time for three days, from Monday to Wednesday tomorrow, and in Turkey.
And the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinski, confirmed the appointment, although without mentioning Turkey, on his official Telegram channel, saying that it will start on Tuesday.
Waiting for some progress in the negotiations, Ukraine continues to defend its territory and has moved on to “small tactical counterattacks” in the regions of Sumy (northeast), Kharkov (east), kyiv (north) and Kherson (south), according to what he said. today the presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestóvych.