“The extraordinary” death rate of Russian generals in the Ukraine war

Although the figures remain unverifiable, the magnitude of Russian casualties in Ukraine it has considerable proportions, symbolized by a phenomenon that has been observed since the first days of the conflict, the death of numerous generals and senior officers.

On Friday, Ukraine claimed that he shot down the commander of the 49th Army of the southern district of RussiaThe general Yakov Rezantsevand that according to the Ukrainian government is the seventh officer of that rank killed since the beginning of the war

The death of Andrey Paliydeputy commander of the Black Sea fleet, was confirmed in fighting around Mariupol (southeast) by the governor of Crimea (annexed by the Russians), Mikhail Razvozhayev.

Counselor to the Ukrainian President, Mykhailo Podoliakwas referring last week to “the extraordinary” death rate of Russian officers, in what he sees as the sign of “the total lack of preparation”.

“Dozens of mid-ranking officers (lieutenants, captains ndlr) died”he claimed.

Media outlets citing Russian communications intercepted by the Ukrainians, mentioned the murder of a Russian officer by his own overwhelmed soldiers.

Russia has only acknowledged the death of one general. Some sources mention 15. Independent verifications are impossible at the moment.

“I look at these figures with great caution”Colin Clarke, director of research at the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank, told AFP. “But let’s talk about 5 or 15, losing generals shows that the Russian chain of command and control is very low.”

Target the high command

Western analysts and military experts unanimously describe a globally unsuccessful first phase of the war for the Russians.

The former red army, which used to have great fame, showed great weaknesses in the quality of its intelligence, its logistics, its erratic tactics. This “forces the chiefs to be far ahead in the line of contact”, notes a senior French military official.

And he advances a hypothesis: “the orders are poorly understood or received, the units do not obey, or there is a greater problem of mood that forces the generals to go to the vanguard”.

And it confirms a likely Ukrainian strategy. “When you’re looking to disrupt a chain of command, you’re targeting the bosses.”

The task is easier to the extent that the Russian army uses communication tools that are easily intercepted by its adversary.

Russian units “do not take care of their computer security procedures and are easily intercepted,” Alexander Grinberg, an analyst at the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy (JISS), told AFP.

On the ground, the operational managers are almost identifiable with the naked eye, he adds, confirming information from other sources.

The commander’s vehicle is recognizable by its “antennas and other vehicles that protect it. This is how the tactical command post is identified,” he notes. The Ukrainians can then “attack with an anti-tank missile, or even better, with an attack drone.”

“Headache”

Western observers point out that the Kremlin does not seem very concerned about human losses and that Russian military culture, even marked by Soviet heritage, traditionally relies on its quantitative power.

“Losses are not a brake,” says a Western diplomat. But the matter is posed in different terms for the chain of command. For although the army has many generals, they are not infinitely interchangeable.

“Numbers count, particularly senior officers,” says Colin Clarke. “Putin sacrificing recruits and mercenaries as cannon fodder is one thing, but if the reports are accurate” about high-level losses, “the information will reach public opinion and cause headaches for the Russian elite,” he believes. .

Russia does not comment on these matters. That there is no denial is considered by some sources as a de facto confirmation.

Léonid Volkov, a close ally of the detained opponent Alexei Navalni, pointed out that no Russian media mentioned the funeral, on March 16, of General Vitali Gerasimov, who died at the beginning of the conflict.

He will be buried without his name on the grave, he said.

Source: Elcomercio

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