Capturing eastern Ukraine is Russia’s new goal. Will Putin achieve his goal?

Almost two months later, Russia not yet achieve their goals Ukraine. Therefore, she has decided to launch an all-out offensive in the east of the countryin the disputed separatist region of Donbas, in order to take it and have the provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk under their control.

what you are looking for now Vladimir Putin it is to annex both provinces, which had already declared themselves independent republics from the power of kyiv, and “liberate” them.

The donbasan area known historically for its coal mines, is a Ukrainian region bordering Russia with access to the Sea of ​​Azov where in 2014 an armed conflict broke out between the Ukrainian Army and pro-Russian militias, which, according to the UN, has caused more 14,000 dead on both sides, between military and civilians.

The Russian offensive in Donbas (AFP).

It is in this region, in addition to the strategic city of Mariupol southeast of Ukraine, where the fiercest battles of the conflict are now being concentrated, after Russia failed to control kyiv, the capital, and decided to withdraw.

“The operation in eastern Ukraine is aimed, as already announced, at the complete liberation of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. This operation will continue, the next phase of this special operation is starting.”Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday.

Ukraine itself described this stage of the war as “The Battle of Donbas”where both countries are concentrating their artillery and that will be definitive to know who ends up giving up.

So far, Moscow has already managed to take Kreminna, a city of 18 thousand inhabitants in Lugansk. “Kreminna is under the control of the ‘orcs’. They have entered the city.”Ukrainian governor of the province Sergiy Gaidai said on Tuesday, referring to the Russians.

Ukrainian soldiers are trying to defend their position in the Donbas region, which is being subjected to an incessant siege by Russian troops. EFE/EPA/STR (STR/)

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“This offensive in Donbas and in the adjacent region, on the Azov Sea coast, is a new stage of the war. At the first stage, Putin was convinced that he was going to occupy Ukraine in a blitzkrieg, conquer kyiv in a few days and install a satellite government”, International analyst Roberto Heimovits comments to El Comercio.

“But eight weeks have passed and the plan failed because of the resistance of the Ukrainian army, the poor performance of the Russian armed forces and the military aid that the United States and Europe are giving to Ukraine,” add.

For this reason, Putin has decided to change his strategy and concentrate on Donbas and Mariupol, a strategic port on the Black Sea that would connect him with Crimea.

“What does Putin intend with this new stage? He seeks to fight on more open ground, and since Russia has material superiority (with tanks, planes, artillery and a military industry that gives it ammunition) Putin hopes to generate a war of attrition, wearing down Ukrainian forces until they are defeated.”Heimovits explains.

need for victory

Putin is fighting against time. For May 9, which commemorates the victory day (national day that commemorates the triumph of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany), Russia wanted to celebrate with great fanfare that it had managed to bend the hand of the West with its military operation in Ukraine.

File photo from 2014 showing the military parade in Moscow’s Red Square on Victory Day. AFP PHOTO / KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV (KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/)

However, the Ukrainian armed forces showed more resistance than expected and the Russian leader still cannot show his country a resounding achievement with the invasion.

As the AP agency points out, “if successful, the offensive would give President Putin a vital piece of Ukraine and a need for victory that he could brandish before the Russian people, while the casualties of the war and the economic hardships derived from the western sanctions.

LOOK: The last redoubt of Ukrainian soldiers that resists the siege of more than 50 days in Mariupol

What will Russia’s success depend on in this new stage? For Heimovits, it is mainly about one factor: the United States and NATO giving more military aid to Ukraine.

“The help that NATO is giving to Ukraine is important but it is not enough. In the last aid package approved by Joe Biden of 800 million dollars, the delivery of 18 155-millimeter guns to Ukraine is contemplated, and that is completely insufficient. This is a historic opportunity for the United States and NATO to stop Russian expansionism. Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe, and if it fell into Russian hands, its army would be 600 kilometers from the NATO borders. They would be very close to Poland, Slovakia and Hungary”it states.

In these eight weeks of conflict, the Ukrainian army has far exceeded expectations in resisting Russian military might. However, the Ukrainians know that this is not the time to underestimate and that the war is far from over.

“If NATO seriously set out to help Ukraine by giving it long-range anti-aircraft missiles, drones and more artillery, Ukraine could really defeat Russia without the need for direct NATO intervention.”Heimovits concludes.

Source: Elcomercio