Gustavo Petro and Fico Gutiérrez, favorites for the first round in Colombia, but there would be a tie in the second

Gustavo Petro Y Federico Gutierrez have one foot in the second round to define the next president of Colombiaaccording to figures from a new survey by the firms Guarumo and EcoAnalítica and revealed today by EL TIEMPO.

The Country Perception study has the added value of being the freshest, since the field work was done between Monday and Friday. 2,132 Colombians were asked in person: which presidential candidate would you vote for if the elections were next Sunday?

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The responses were as follows: Gustavo Petro, 36.4 percent; Federico Gutierrez, 30.6 percent; Rodolfo Hernandez, 12.4 percent; Sergio Fajardo, 6.9 percent; Ingrid Betancourt, 1.3 percent; John Milton Rodriguez, 1.1 percent; Enrique Gomez, 1.1 percent; Luis Pérez, 0.2 percent; blank vote, 5.7 percent; and do not know or do not respond, 4.3 percent.

Presidential poll in Colombia.

All those surveyed said they were going to vote. on sunday may 29.

Political science analysts warn that a poll is not a forecast, but a snapshot of a given moment. To this day, then, and with this image there are five conclusions:

First. Petro Y phyco they can smile because both have opened enough of a gap with their remaining six competitors to feel like they’ll be through to the second round. The distance is 24 points from the candidate of the Historical Pact on the third and 18 of the applicant of Team for Colombia on his pursuer.

Despite this, neither of them gets the 50 points plus one vote to win in the first round. In other words, according to this survey, Colombians would return to the polls on Sunday, June 19, to choose the winner. This, although both have had sustained growth as can be seen in the comparison of the results of surveys of the same firms.

Petro in March it obtained 32.7 percent; 34 percent at the beginning of April and now it is 36.4 percent. And Fico marked 7.7 percent in March; 25 percent at the beginning of April and it is already at 30.6 percent. In other words, in just two months it has grown 23 points. A jump without comparisons with the other candidates.

Presidential poll in Colombia.

The phenomenon

Second. Rodolfo Hernandez has ratified that it is an electoral phenomenon in this campaign. With an unbuttoned language, sometimes without measuring the forms, a campaign team without media figures or electoral barons and with its headquarters in Bucaramanga, consolidates itself in third place.

The former mayor of the capital of the department of Santander marked 8.2 percent in March; in early April it rose one point, 9.3 percent; and now three more: 12.4 percent.

Third. The fall of the candidate of the Esperanza Center Coalition. In March he got 9.1 percent; in early April it rose slightly to 9.5 percent and is now down to 6.9 percent.

With these data, it could be concluded that the center and the center-left, to date, have lost prominence and that Colombians are going to opt for antagonistic political positions.

Quarter. In line with these results, the possibility of an alliance between Hernández and Fajardo remains up in the air. This formula, which would have been very attractive a month ago, is late for reasons of form and substance. The ballots are already being printed and despite the fact that one of them got off the bus to push the other, his photograph would be on the document that will be delivered to voters at the polls.

Alfonso Portela, former delegate registrar and expert in electoral mechanics, told EL TIEMPO that making changes at this point is impossible. The only exception would be due to incapacity or death of one of the members of the formulas that are already registered.

However, he said that the resignation of a candidacy “can be at any time” and that in this particular case, depending on the times of the Registry, the most that could be done is “take out one of the two boxes” of the card electoral.

The survey also shows a new political reality. Until a few hours ago, the dialogue between the two applicants was fluid and an agreement seemed likely. In the Fajardo campaign they were convinced that the results would be favorable and the engineer would retire. But it was the other way around.

In fact, these data are more or less similar to the Invamer survey released on Friday morning. That got Hernandez excited to the point that he said, “I’m at 14 percent and he’s, unfortunately, at 6 percent. That result was not invented by me, I did not contract the survey. What we hope is that in the rest of the day or tomorrow or next week, he, to honor his word, fulfills it and supports me”.

Fajardo, for his part, replied that he was not retiring: “We entered politics to transform it, out of conviction and for the higher purpose that is Colombia. Today we reiterate that we are going forward, we know how to fight and we are going to show in these 30 days that we are the best option for change”.

Fifth. With these results, it could be considered that of the eight candidates for the presidency, four of them will no longer play any decision-making role. Ingrid’s numbers, 1.3 percent; John Milton, 1.1 percent; Gómez, 1.1 percent, and Pérez, 0.2 percent, are below the poll’s margin of error, which is 2.5 percent.

This situation means that at any time one of them can throw in the towel. “Here, out of three, two of us have to resign. I would be willing to do so in order to give Colombia an option. If it’s Rodolfo first, I have no problem; if it is Sergio, I would love it, I have no problem. We need to unite Colombia,” Ingrid said recently.

the second round

But in case Petro Y phyco whoever got a ticket to compete in a second round, what would be the result? Petro would obtain, according to Guarumo and EcoAnalítica, 43.8 percent; and Gutiérrez, 40.9 percent.

In the previous measurement of the same survey, from the beginning of April, Fico was ahead with 43.5 percent, three points ahead of Petro, which scored 40.1 percent.

Presidential poll in Colombia.

With both surveys on the table, a technical tie between the two is shown, which predicts a true finish vote.

“These numbers basically confirm that the most likely today, unless something extraordinary happens, is that Petro and Gutiérrez are the two that are most supported for a second round,” says Yann Basset, professor at the Universidad del Rosario . “A first-round win seems unlikely, though not totally impossible,” he says.

The Guarumo and EcoAnalítica study is the third to be published in Colombia in less than a week with more or less similar results.

In the scenario of a second round between Petro and Rodolfo Hernández, the candidate of the Historical Pact would win with 44.5% compared to 37.1 for his rival.

Petro and Gutiérrez would go to a second round, according to the voting intention survey carried out by the firm Invamer for Noticias Caracol, Blu Radio and El Espectador, this Friday.

According to these data, Petro is located first with 43.6 percent; Gutiérrez, second, 26.7 percent. After them comes Hernández, with 13.9 percent; Fajardo, with 6.5 percent; Rodríguez, with 1.5 percent; Gómez, with 1.1 percent; Ingrid, with 0.5 percent, and Pérez, with the same figure.

In this, in a second round scenario, Petro has an advantage. The candidate of the Historical Pact gets 52.4 percent and the former mayor of Medellín, 45.2.

And eight days ago, the one from the National Consulting Center (CNC) for Semana was published. In this, Petro would obtain 38 percent of the votes, while Gutiérrez would have 23.8 percent. Hernández appears in third place with 9.6 percent, and Sergio Fajardo marks 7.2 percent.

In this CNC survey for Semana, Petro would beat Fico in the second round by a difference of 7.9 percentage points. Petro would have 44.8% and Fico would reach 36.9%.

However, Andrés Segura, an expert in political communication and who has followed the campaign day by day, invites us to concentrate, for now, on the first round. “With the second round scenarios, the same thing happens that happened when they asked for the first round before the consultations. They give a guide, but they are not a good reflection because the voters are still not clear about what the second-round political landscape looks like, ”he argues.

The candidates are aware of this reality and this Sunday each of them has campaign events in various parts of the national geography. It is about redoubling efforts because the surveys also show how they are doing in each of the regions.

The analysis of these results is made by Nadia Pérez Guevara, a research political scientist at the Institute of Political Studies of the Autonomous University of Bucaramanga: “Gutiérrez’s resounding victory in Antioquia is something that does not seem surprising,” she says. “As neither the positioning of Petro in the Caribbean, the Pacific and in Bogotá.”

“But yes in the case of other campaigns, such as that of Fajardo, which does not manage to position itself even in the eastern region, in Boyacá and Santander, where it would be expected to be so because there it has the support of former Governor Carlos Amaya.”

For this reason, she sees this geographic space in which Hernandez has imposed the best numbers so far.

However, for several analysts consulted by this newspaper, in Colombia, with few exceptions –such as Álvaro Uribe–, it is difficult to affirm that a politician can endorse the votes of others. But whether or not this is the case in these elections, it is undeniable that Hernández has favor on the table in his region that allows him to negotiate.

The days to come will be hectic. In a country with so much information vertigo, where so many things happen, there are those who consider that anything can still happen. Others believe that these three surveys coincide in showing trends that will possibly continue until May 29.

Data sheet

Legal entity that conducted the survey: Guarumo SAS and EcoAnalítica Measurement and Economic Concepts SAS Entrusted legal entity: Guarumo SAS and EcoAnalytic Measurement and Economic Concepts SASFunding source: Guarumo SAS and EcoAnalítica Measurement and Economic Concepts SASGeneral purpose: questions about the image of favorability of the President and voting intention.Study universe: Colombian men and women over 18 years of age, residing in Colombia, except for the so-called former National Territories and the San Andrés archipelago, who expressed their intention to vote in the next presidential elections.Sample design: the sample design is probabilistic.Sample size: 2,132 surveys.Collection technique: face-to-face survey.Date of collection: from April 25 to 29, 2022. Characters for whom it was inquired: refer to the collection form.Error range: the margin of error is 2.5% with 95% confidence. Sample distribution: The surveys were conducted in the following municipalities: Barranquilla (113), Bello (61), Bogotá DC (286), Bucaramanga (87), Cali (97), Cartagena (74), Ciénaga (46), Cúcuta (73), Dosquebradas (77), Floridablanca (63), Girón (24), Granada (39), Maicao (23), Manizales (99), Medellín (123), Palmira (74), Pamplona (61), Pasto (117), Pereira (66), Riohacha (69), Risaralda (29), Santa Marta (73), Soacha (49), Soledad (113), Tocaima (3), Turbaco (63), Uribia (59), Villavicencio (71).Sampling frames: municipalities National Population Census. Statistician: Gustavo Romero Cruz.

Source: Elcomercio