How viable is Italy’s proposed plan to end the war between Russia and Ukraine?

On Friday of last week, Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio met with Antonio Guterres, secretary general of the UNand handed him a plan to settle the war between Russia Y Ukraine. In total there are four steps that start from the premise that kyiv is the victim, and that she is looking for, “as soon as possible”, an end to the crossfire.

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However, in the eyes of international analyst Francesco Tucci, the proposal does not take reality into account and could well be short-sighted. The situation is clear to the specialist: “For now, the military forces of both countries have not been worn down to the point of favoring a solution such as the one proposed by Italy.”.

“On the contrary, both Ukraine and Russia believe that they can achieve a better position before starting a serious and deep negotiation. That is why I think we are facing a war of attrition and actually, I don’t see the peace plan feasible”.

Kyiv Y Moscow they reacted positively upon receiving the document, although the parties slipped their shortcomings diplomatically.

“Relevant proposals are being studied”, declared the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Oleg Nikolenko. Andrei RudenkoRussian Deputy Foreign Minister, maintained that they were already reviewing the proposal, but that the “freezing” of the negotiations was not his fault.

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Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio. REUTERS (MASSIMO PINCA/)

What does the plan say?

The document delivered by Italy It has not been published, although the AFP agency indicates that the media “La Repubblica” reported that it is based on four stages. The first is the ceasefire and the demilitarization of the war zones”under the supervision” of the United Nations, which for Tucci is an unlikely goal to achieve. “It must be remembered that the President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that the ceasefire is only possible if the Russians withdraw from Ukrainian territory”.

The second point is the adhesion of Ukraine to European Unionbut not to NATO. “It is a controversial issue because they forget that in the Treaty of Lisbon, the latest incarnation of the agreements of the EUarticle 42.7 appears″.

According to said clause, recalls Tucci, in the event that a country of the union is the object of an armed attack on its territory, “the others of the bloc will provide help and assistance by all means at their disposal, in accordance with the provisions of the article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations”. Surely Putin will reject the idea.

It is not the only thing to consider. Clément Beaune, French Minister Delegate for European Affairsrecently declared that adding Ukraine to the European Union “it will probably take 15 or 20 years”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin. EFE (RAMIL SITDIKOV / SPUTNIK / KREMLI /)

The third matter raised Italy is a bilateral agreement on the status of crimea and the donbas: Although they would have autonomy and the right to guarantee their own security, they would not cease to be part of Ukraine. “But Russia has already conquered and annexed Crimea and is now in control of Donbas, so he probably won’t want to bring it up.Tucci adds.

Finally, the quarter stage consists of a multilateral peace and security agreement in the Old continent“including disarmament, arms control and conflict prevention”. Tucci assesses: “Vladimir Putin has been seeking such an agreement for more than a decade, so it seems to me out of time. I find it difficult to materialize”.

“In general, the plan does not seem so consistent to me. He has good intentions, he wants to negotiate, but the situation on the battlefield is different”.

“The Russians are advancing in the Ukraine. They are hardly going to give in now and sit down at the negotiating table because they can achieve a minimum military objective.”, declares the specialist.

Source: Elcomercio