Colombia elects president between proposals for “change” and with the left as favorite

In the midst of a polarized environment and growing discontent with the corruption and high levels of inequality and inflation that impact daily life, the citizens of Colombia They will go to the polls this Sunday, May 29, to elect a new president from a pack of six candidates.

It will be the second presidential election since Colombia signed a peace agreement with the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in 2016. However, this ceased to be the central issue in a country that, after closing five decades of confrontation with that guerrilla, it faces new challenges.

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“Change” is the word that most of the contenders repeat and that for each one has different nuances. Not even the right-wing candidate wants to be associated with the current Conservative president Ivan Dukewho ends his four-year term with low levels of popularity.

Colombia could follow in the footsteps of Peru and Chile, which in recent years have chosen to veer to the left. “This trend would be due more to an alternation in the face of the governments that have been in power and that have dealt with a pandemic that has brought with it high levels of unemployment and inequality,” Paola Montilla, a doctor in political science and professor of science, told The Associated Press. the Externado University of Colombia.

Gustav Petro. (AFP).

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In the political spectrum represented by the candidates, the furthest from the current model is the former rebel Gustavo Petrowho leads the polls, and if he wins, he would make a 180-degree turn as the first leftist president in a country that has always been governed by conservatives or moderates. His proposals, which include not granting new oil exploitation licenses, arouse fear in some sectors.

The latest surveys in Colombia. (AFP).

“The left has been quite marginalized due to the weight of the armed conflict in Colombia, to the very recent existence of a guerrilla that claimed to be leftist like the FARC”Yann Basset, a political analyst and professor at the Universidad del Rosario, told the AP. “The change occurs with the peace agreement, that raises this mortgage a little for the left and promotes a different agenda with social issues suspended by the conflict”, he added.

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The current one has been a tense campaign with risks in the security of the candidates. Petro and his vice-presidential formula, France Marquez, denounced threats and a plan to attempt against their lives, which led to a notable increase in their protection scheme. Public squares became a risk and a dozen escorts protected them with shields.

The left-wing candidate for the Presidency of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, speaks during the closing of his campaign in the central Plaza de Bolívar in Bogotá. (EFE / Carlos Ortega).

The pandemic exacerbated poverty. In 2021, official figures showed that 39% of Colombians -out of a population of 51.6 million inhabitants- were in a condition of monetary poverty, that is, they subsist on less than $89 a month. And although it is a slight improvement compared to 2020, when it was 42.5%, it meant a setback of at least a decade in this fight.

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With 9.2% inflation, the country reached its highest levels in two decades for this indicator in April. The government justifies the negative numbers by saying that it is a global inflationary phenomenon, while ordinary citizens see the increase in the price of food that they must buy with the same salary.

In his speeches, Petro often stresses that Colombia is one of the most unequal countries in Latin America, while promising to focus his management on closing gaps and serving the most vulnerable with employment in the State, increased subsidies and free higher education. Federico Gutierrezthe right-wing candidate, promises to fight hunger with the extension of subsidies and public-private alliances so that 10 tons of food that are usually lost each year are destined for the poorest.

Fico Gutierrez. (AFP).

Among the difficulties facing the country is not only poverty, but also violence. The International Committee of the Red Cross concluded that in 2021, violence reached its highest level in the last five years. Although the peace agreement is underway, the territories and drug trafficking routes that the FARC controlled are in dispute between other armed groups such as the National Liberation Army (ELN)a guerrilla founded in the 1960s, the FARC dissidents and the Clan del Golfo cartel.

“Sadly, the security and human rights situation in remote areas is today objectively worse than in 2018. We see worrying increases in the rates of forced displacement, confinements and homicides in several regions of the country, as well as the expansion of multiple armed groups”Juan Pappier, a senior investigator at Human Rights Watch for the Americas Division, told the AP.

According to the expert, the deterioration in the humanitarian situation is a consequence of a “uneven implementation of the peace agreement”and of a security policy that even when it captured ringleaders, such as the most wanted drug trafficker and head of the Clan del Golfo alias “Otoniel”, has not been able to dismantle the armed groups and effectively protect the civilian population.

Consequently, the next president will face a complex security situation and the dilemma of whether or not to resume the peace talks with the ELN that Duque suspended in 2019 following an attack on a police school that killed 22 people. During the campaign this was a central issue and, with nuances, none of the applicants was closed to the possibility. Petro assured that he would sit at the table with the ELN and through dialogue he would try to bring the other groups to justice. Gutiérrez, more emphatically, asks the guerrillas for a unilateral and indefinite ceasefire as a bargaining chip.

Surveys indicate that corruption is the problem that most worries citizens. This could partly explain the surprise rise in the final stretch of the candidate Rodolfo Hernandeza 77-year-old former mayor who declares himself against “politicking” and who promises to “clean” the State of corruption, with immediate austerity measures such as suspending plane services, donating his salary and eliminating some embassies, proposals that its critics describe as populist.

Colombia’s independent presidential candidate Rodolfo Hernández speaks alongside former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt in Barranquilla, on May 20, 2022. (Jeison Gutiérrez / AFP)

Also in the deck of candidates are Sergio Fajardo, former mayor of Medellín and candidate for the center coalition; Christian leader John Milton Rodríguez; and the conservative Enrique Gómez. In the event that no candidate obtains half plus one of the votes on May 29, a new vote will be called in June with the two that have obtained the most votes.

From doors to the outside, the presidential relief can mean changes. Colombia is considered by the United States as its strategic ally in the region. President Joe Biden recently declared it a non-NATO member strategic ally of choice. Less than a week before the elections, Colombia issued a statement reaffirming the “close relationship” with the US, especially in terms of security and defense.

Colombian presidential candidate for the Hope Center Coalition, Sergio Fajardo, delivers a speech during a rally in Medellin, Colombia, on May 3, 2022. (JOAQUIN SARMIENTO / AFP).

If Petro comes to power, foreign policy priorities could change, says Rafael Piñeros, coordinator of International Relations at the Externado de Colombia University. “The objective would be to find other allies, perhaps looking at Asia and, of course, much more towards Latin America, where the reconfiguration of the political scheme has generated a certain diversity, they could be governments friends of Chile and we do not know what happens in Brazil,” he explained. to the PA.

As for Venezuela, with which Colombia shares more than 2,200 kilometers of border, Petro is in favor of reestablishing diplomatic relations, broken since 2019. His critics often warn that Petro could be a “new Hugo Chávez”, which the candidate denies. saying that it will not implement an economy based on hydrocarbons or a communist model.

Source: Elcomercio