“The problem now is not the lack of food”: how vulnerable is Latin America to the global food crisis?

Parents often tell their children that you don’t play with food. Well, they should add that it is not used as a weapon of war either. In recent weeks, warnings that the world food crisisaggravated after the Russian invasion in Ukraine, is on the way to becoming a wave of hunger for millions of people on the planet have sounded louder, without being able to hide the tone of alarm and deep concern. “Food catastrophe”, called it “The Economist”. “Apocalypse now?” asked “The Guardian”.

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Although the war in Ukraine has cut off an important source of wheat –Moscow Y Kyiv produce 30% of this cereal in the world–, sunflower oil and fertilizers, among other crops and supplies of the food system, the conflict has only accelerated a crisis that has been warned about for a long time.

Sophia Murphy, executive director of the Institute for Agricultural and Trade Policy (IATP), a US-based think tank, points out that among the many causes of the crisis are the heavy reliance on wheat What basic food world, relatively concentrated production for export markets in a small number of countries, drought in some exporting countries, poor regulation of commodity price speculation, and the pandemic.

Regarding COVID-19, the expert emphasizes that it has slowed down economic activity and has cost a lot of public money, leaving countries with fewer resources to face a new crisis.

The food crisis is global. (Photo: Getty Images)

“At the base of everything is climate change, which makes growing conditions difficult in most places, as well as the loss of biodiversity, which reduces the ability to adapt to changing growing conditions. The food system has long been fragile. The concerns are not new, but the invasion of Ukraine shows the fragility of the food system we have built”, Murphy tells El Comercio.

No food in the region?

like any food crisisthis has exposed old and new problems in terms of feeding. Also in Latin America. The World Food Program (WFP) predicts that the region will go through one of the most acute crises in its history in terms of food insecurity, as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, but hunger and malnutrition are old acquaintances.

“Within Latin America we have high levels of poverty. Countries like Haiti, among others, are going to be more affected by the rise in basic food prices. Whenever this happens, the first group to have problems is the one with the fewest resources.”, says Christian René Encina Zelada, professor and researcher at the Faculty of Food Industries of the La Molina National Agrarian University.

The “World Report on Food Crises 2022″ confirms this. Food insecurity in the region is most severe in four countries: Haiti, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras.

For Sofía Monsalve, a member of the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES-Food), the factor that makes Latin America in the face of crisis is the dependence on synthetic fertilizers.

In 2021, 25.6% of the population remained in poverty in Peru. (Photo: Julio Reaño | GEC)

It also emphasizes that this food crisis is intimately linked to other crises, such as the financial and energy crises, and when we add the conflicts and wars that occur not only in Ukraine -the greatest famines of our times are in Yemen or Syria- that constitutes a very complex problem that requires systemic responses. “Solutions based on humanitarian aid alone are not enough, it is urgent to start making the transition to sustainable agriculture“, it states.

He defends that humanitarian aid is not enough, but that it is urgent to start making the transition towards sustainable agriculture.

“The problem in Latin America right now is not a lack of foods, at the global level it is not either, but in the region that is quite clear. There is food, the problem is that the population is impoverished and we are coming from the COVID-19 recession and what people urgently need is to have the means to be able to buy food”, says the expert.

(Trade)

For this reason, he points out that it is very important not to remain trapped in the vulnerabilities and fragility of the industrial system of farming based on global trade, but a transformation towards peasant agroecology is necessary.

María Alejandra Girona, coordinator of the Right to Food Observatory and professor at the University of the Republic of Uruguay, also does not believe that the conflict in Ukraine will cause a drop in the availability of food in the region. foods.

“It must be remembered that Latin America and the Caribbean is a supplier of food to the world, even during the COVID-19 crisis, food production in the region did not stop, but there is an increase in the prices of some products that undoubtedly will affect daily consumption especially of those who have their income affected“, Explain.

In the pockets

Murphy recalls that while Latin America It is a large net exporter of foods, rising energy prices as well as disrupted supply chains have already caused significant inflation in food prices, as well as many other goods. And food prices are expected to remain high around the world.

“In general, rising commodity prices are good for countries that export agricultural products. But the region also imports a lot of food, and some countries are net food importers, which will now pay higher import bills.says Murphy.

In addition, the price increase of energy, as well as the interruption of supply chains, have already caused significant inflation in the prices of foodsas in many other goods.

Poverty was already a serious problem in Latin America before the war in Ukraine. (Photo: AFP)

“In this context, the highly urbanized populations of Latin America will face higher bills for everyday needs (especially foods and gasoline) and possibly fewer economic opportunities, due to the COVID-related economic slowdown, for example in tourism”, adds the expert.

Sofía Boza, associate professor of the Department of Rural Management and Innovation of the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences of the University of Chile, emphasizes that those countries and regions that have a greater dependence on the import of cereals, such as wheat, and vegetable oil, they are the ones that have an even higher impact of the price increase.

“In Latin America There are two elements that I think are key to highlight, the first is that not all countries are large cereal producers and the other is that not all countries are net food exporters. Therefore, although we may have a slightly more advantageous situation than other regions of the world, without a doubt this situation also affects us, and at a particular level, especially the population with the lowest socioeconomic level, given that the relative expenditure of family income on food is greater”, he points out.

possible scenarios

It is clear that the most optimistic scenario in the face of the ongoing crisis would be a ceasefire in Ukraine, which would cause a sharp drop in prices. However, given low global inventories, they would remain firmly above the 10-year historical average, says Dennis Voznesenski, agriculture analyst at Rabobank in Sydney.

“The end of the war would not mean that Ukrainian exports return to normal immediately. It will take weeks or months to demine and clear ports, or rebuild where necessary”, he points.

A woman walks past a destroyed apartment building in Bakhmut, in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, on May 22, 2022. (ARIS MESINIS / AFP)

As for the less encouraging scenario, Voznesenski raises the possibility that, in a political move, Russia will ban exports of wheatwhich would cause an incredibly sharp price spike, especially if you do it in July, which is when the Black Sea harvest starts and when the world tends to rely more on those specific exports.

Sofía Boza adds that it is very relevant to take into account how long the conflict will last and what the responses will be from the main producing countries of the foods that have increased the price the most. “The least optimistic scenario implies that the price of staple foods will continue to rise significantly and, consequently, the millions of people in extreme poverty and acute food insecurity.”, he points.

Murphy adds that the worst case scenario would be that none of the lessons of this crisis are learned, and countries remain heavily dependent on very few grains, from very few producing countries, run by an oligopoly of grain traders. “The crisis is a time to rethink food production and distribution systems, which are inherently fragile, and to focus on how to deal with the climate emergency that cannot be reversed, only slowed down.”, he concludes.

Source: Elcomercio