Hernández vs Petro: Who is winning in Colombia according to the latest survey by Guarumo and EcoAnalítica for El Tiempo?

The last photograph taken of the race to the Casa de Nariño shows a slight advantage of Rodolfo Hernandez on Gustavo Petro ahead of the elections on Sunday June 19 in Colombia. However, it is such a short distance that the only certainty is that each vote deposited in the polls will be transcendental to decide who will be the president of the Republic in the period 2022-2026.

To the question: “If the second round to elect the president were next Sunday, who would you vote for?” 48.2% responded that they would do it for the former mayor of Bucaramanga, while 46.5% said it would be for the former mayor of Bogotá.

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The vote in white gets a 5.3%. With respect to the survey of the same firm published the previous week also in this newspaper, the blank vote fell, since it was at 8.4%. There are almost three points of citizens who opted for one of the two candidates.

Survey in Colombia. (Time).

In that, Hernandez was also first, with 46.4%, while Petro marked 43.3%. In numbers, the candidate for Historical Pact reduced the distance on the applicant of the League of Rulers anti-corruption (League), which eight days ago was 3.1%. Today the difference between the two is just 1.7%.

The study called Country Perception of firms Guarumo SAS and EcoAnalytics Measurement and Economic Concepts SAS warns that the margin of error is 2.5%, with 95% confidence.

In simple words, this means a “technical tie”. A candidate can go up or down 2.5%. The survey released today by EL TIEMPO is one more page of an unprecedented campaign in many aspects: there were no debates between the two to confront their proposals, both chose to suspend public demonstrations and each claims to be the representative of change. Some analysts believe that this will be one of the keys of the day. Will citizens go to the polls and check this box as a sign of dissatisfaction when they feel that none meets their expectations or, as the survey shows, will they opt for one of them?

This is a considerable figure because 5 points is equivalent, more or less, to a million people. Why? Historical behavior in the second round of this century is that fewer people vote than in the first. For the first round of May 29, there was a participation of 55%.

Political experts, such as Andrés Segura, predict that it can go down to between 52 and 53%. For him, in round figures, about 20.5 million people will go to the polls. Namely, each point would be, according to these calculations, about 200,00 votes. Should today’s poll images translate into reality this Sunday, the future head of state would be elected with a difference of about 300,000 votes over his rival.

Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández, Colombian presidential candidates. (Photo: Private file, EL TIEMPO).

Putting the magnifying glass on the survey shows that Hernández wins in Antioquia and the Coffee Region with 60.2% compared to 32.5% of Petro. There the blank vote is 7.3%.

In the center east, Hernández obtains 62.2% of Petro’s 33.7%. For the engineer, these two regions are crucial because in both he doubles the intention to vote for the leader of the left.

Petro, meanwhile, also doubles Hernández in the Atlantic Coast (60.8% vs. 34.7%) and in the southwest (61.3% vs. 33.7%).

However, the difference is in Bogota, where today the distance between the two is 14 points. Petro has 54.0% and Hernández, 40.6%. The blank vote of the capital is 5.4%.

Source: Elcomercio